Kazakhstan's Basra Körfezi Project Faces Risks Amid US-Iran Conflict

Kazakhstan has signed a historic agreement with Iran, finally bringing its decades-long dream of a southern trade corridor to the signing stage. This step offers the landlocked Central Asian country an opportunity to open a strategic gateway to the Basra Körfezi. However, the realization of this ambitious project coincides with a highly critical period when regional tensions have peaked. The US's consecutive military operations against Iran and Iran's retaliation against American bases in Gulf countries have seriously called into question the security of the new trade route. Therefore, Astana is forced to contend with a growing risk of armed conflict while safeguarding its gains.

As part of the agreement, the two countries decided to build a Kazakh transport and logistics terminal at Iran's Şahid Racai Limanı in Bender Abbas under a 27-year build-operate-transfer (BOT) model. According to the signed contract, the construction period of the project is planned as two years, while the terminal is expected to be operated by Kazakhstan for 25 years. An investment of 25 million dollars will be made for this 15-hectare logistics center, which is expected to reach an annual cargo handling capacity of 1.5 million tons. This agreement, approved by the authorities of Kazakhstan and Iran, stipulates that commercial activities will start at full capacity from the third year onwards.

From Kazakhstan's perspective, this massive investment is considered a vital step to expand the country's export markets to the Basra Körfezi, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Africa. The primary goal of the project is to integrate Kazakhstan directly into the international North-South Transit Corridor, thereby connecting Central Asia to global maritime trade routes. Officials from the İran Limanlar ve Denizcilik Örgütü stated that the terminal will create employment in the region and significantly increase the operational capacity of Şahid Racai Limanı. Furthermore, this is seen as a concrete result of Kazakhstan's years-long strategic efforts to diversify its northern trade routes, which are dependent on Russia.

Despite all these economic and commercial goals, the biggest obstacle facing the project has been the deteriorating security situation in the region. US President Donald Trump declared a temporary ceasefire agreement aimed at ending the Iran war as 'over' due to attacks on ships in the Hürmüz Boğazı, announcing that he would not sit down at the table with Iran. Following this, after the US military conducted a new airstrike on Iran, Iran opened retaliatory fire on American facilities in Bahreyn and Kuveyt. As the conflicts intensified, the US Merkez Komutanlığı stated that the attacks aimed to further reduce Iran's threats to maritime traffic in the strait.

The rapidly escalating military crisis has turned Iran's southern coastline, particularly Bender Abbas where Şahid Racai Limanı is located, into a direct conflict zone. While it was reported that more than 170 Iranian targets were struck and dozens of civilians lost their lives during the two-day intense American attacks, the risk of war in the region continues to rise. The immediate reflection of this situation on global markets by increasing international oil prices has also noticeably raised the economic costs of trade routes. Even if Kazakhstan lowers cargo handling costs and takes control of cargo with the new port project, it has to face the reality that it cannot eliminate the risk of war at the end of the sea route.