Statement from Seismologist Demirtaş on Pınarbaşı: 'Earthquake Science is Not Fortune-Telling'

Seismologist Ramazan Demirtaş made an important assessment regarding the earthquake series that occurred in the Pınarbaşı district of Kayseri. Demirtaş announced that intense seismic activity was experienced in the region between 7 June and 8 July 2026. During this one-month period, exactly 251 earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 0.5 to 4.0 were recorded. These figures reveal that there is an active fault line in the region and that energy is continuously being released. The official stated that he shared these numerical data to inform the public and prevent panic.

Noting that one of the periods of most intense activity in the region was 16 June 2026, Demirtaş emphasized that a small-scale 'earthquake storm' occurred that day. He reported that the daily number of earthquakes reached 99 on that day, indicating a significant seismic movement. However, he noted that after 32 days, daily seismic activity nearly stopped completely, dropping to just 1. The scientist added that this situation proves that earthquakes have an unpredictable but monitorable dynamic process. The decrease in activity over time was interpreted as the energy in the region slowly dissipating through small tremors.

The most striking part of Demirtaş's statement was his harsh criticism of populist and pseudo-scientific claims that drive the public into panic regarding earthquakes. He reminded that during the earthquake storm on 16 June, individuals without any scientific basis made statements claiming there was 'a potential for a destructive earthquake of 6.5 to 7.0 magnitude' in the region. Demirtaş stated that such baseless statements, unaware of fault hazard parameters, fill the archives, and that the passing time has refuted these claims. The scientist noted that the owners of these claims were slapped in the face by reality, emphasizing that such an approach causes social trauma. The official once again underlined that earthquake science deals with concrete data, not speculation.

To prove the importance of scientific data, the seismologist cited major earthquakes in Turkey and around the world. He reminded that the 17 August 1999 İzmit Bay earthquake (M7.6), which occurred in the past and deeply shook society, caused massive destruction. Similarly, he emphasized that the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, which occurred on 6 February 2023 in Narlı and Çardak and reached magnitudes of M7.8 and M7.6, caused severe loss of life and property. Demirtaş also referenced the M7.2 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes that occurred in Venezuela on 25 June 2026, stating that seismic risk is a global reality. He stated that none of these massive destructions could be detected in advance with populist predictions, emphasizing the importance of realistic science.

In light of all these data, Demirtaş finally defined the limits and purpose of earthquake science clearly. The official reiterated the fact that exactly when, where, and with what magnitude a future earthquake will occur cannot be known in advance, saying, 'Earthquake science is not a science of fortune or fortune-telling.' He argued that it must be accepted that the timing of earthquakes cannot be predicted, but risky regions and potential magnitudes can be mapped. He stated that relying on information from fortune-tellers or whisper networks instead of scientists jeopardizes public safety. Therefore, he added that it is essential for the public to correctly understand the real-time earthquake monitoring networks and scientific calculations of authorized institutions. He warned that populist statements devoid of science do more harm than good and could lead to being caught unprepared during an actual disaster.