Kazakhstan's new electoral system and the 30% quota issue for women's representation in parliament

In the framework of the new constitution that entered into force on 1 Temmuz in Kazakhstan, the elections to be held on 23 Ağustos represent a historic turning point for the country's political structure. Voters will go to the polls to elect the first 145-member unicameral Kurultai, replacing the former Mazhilis and Senate. While political parties prepare their candidate lists, they must comply with a quota practice that has gained special importance under the new electoral system. This new practice mandates that at least 30% of the candidates come from groups composed of women, youth, and people with disabilities. However, there are already question marks and analyses regarding how this goal will shape the outcome at the ballot box and whether it will provide a real increase in representation.

The current legal regulation unfortunately does not offer a direct guarantee for the output at the ballot box and contains complexity in terms of implementation. The law sets a collective target that melts women with young people and people with disabilities in the same pot, rather than guaranteeing 30% of the seats in parliament for women. In this case, political parties may technically fulfill the rule by focusing on the other two categories without increasing the ratio of women candidates. Furthermore, in the system based on proportional representation across the country, which is valid for Kazakhstan's new Kurultai, the ranking of candidates on the party list will be a determining factor for their eligibility as much as their candidacy.

Looking at Kazakhstan's current situation as the election process begins, it is clear how necessary improvement in women's representation is. In the period before the transition, the presence of women in parliament was quite limited; by the end of 2025, women held only 17.3% of the seats in the Mazhilis and 20% in the Senate. These data show that Kazakhstan lags behind the global average (27.5%) in the ratio of women deputies. Therefore, the steps to be taken to eliminate the political representation inequality in the country and the effectiveness of the quota mechanism to be applied are of great importance.

To evaluate Kazakhstan's move, one needs to look at similar applications and results of its regional neighbors, presenting a data set. In Özbekistan, when the quota specially allocated for women in the 2024 elections was raised from 30% to 40%, the number of women deputies in the Mazhilis showed an immediate increase, reaching 57 out of 150 seats. As a result of this application, the ratio rising to 38% can be accepted as proof of the success brought by the clear focus of the gender quota on the target audience. Özbekistan's women-centered special quota produced a more distinct result than Kazakhstan's inclusive approach.

While the development in Özbekistan is distinct, the most striking and rapid progress in the region came from Kırgızistan. In the 2025 parliamentary elections, the seat ratio for women recorded an increase of exactly 12.9% compared to the previous election, making it the highest increase among countries renewing their parliament that year. The success in Kırgızistan stemmed from the redesign of the foundation of the electoral system rather than a symbolic quota increase. With the new rule applied, it was ensured that no gender could take more than two of the three seats in any electoral district. This mechanism revealed a much stronger structure that mathematically guaranteed women at least one-third of the parliamentary seats across the country.