Crisis Politics Changed in Romanya: AUR Leader, PNL on the Rise

The deep political crisis in Romanya for the last two months has radically changed the country's political landscape, significantly increasing public interest in elections. The latest Poll/Int Romanya barometer data conducted by Politic Rating Agency (ARP) reveals a serious restructuring in voter preferences. This environment of uncertainty triggered by the crisis directly affected voters' motivation to go to the polls, as well as which party will receive how much vote. While significant fluctuations are observed in the vote rates of traditional parties, opposition parties are seen to consolidate their power. This situation indicates that the results of a likely early election in the near future could be highly dynamic and unpredictable.

According to the poll, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, AUR party would maintain its leadership by receiving 36.4 percent of the valid votes, excluding undecideds, while PNL rose to second place with 22.4 percent. PSD, which used to be in the first or second place, fell to third place with a 17.9 percent vote rate. USR remained at 10.5 percent, UDMR at 4.9 percent, and SOS Romanya at 2.9 percent; the vote rates of other small parties remained quite limited. While approximately 16.4 percent of the voters stated they still could not decide, 14.8 percent stated they would not go to the polls or refused to answer the question. Compared to the data in Nisan, it is possible to see that PNL has made a significant leap and AUR has shown a slight increase.

The authors of the research evaluate that PNL is the biggest winner of the political developments since Nisan. In recent months, PNL managed to attract a large portion of undecided voters and also carried out a significant vote transfer from smaller parties such as USR and REPER. AUR, on the other hand, maintains its advantage against traditional parties and continues to increase its support steadily. Although PSD appears to have largely preserved its voter base, it is noteworthy that this group is the least motivated and interested group in terms of election participation. In contrast, it is noted that PNL and AUR sympathizers stand out as the voters who will show the highest mobilization at the polls.

Significant data were also obtained regarding the reliability and recognition of political figures; AUR leader George Simion continues to be the most trusted name among the public with a 35 percent trust rate. PNL's Ilie Bolojan made a huge leap compared to his 21.8 percent rate in Nisan, settling in second place in the trust ranking with 29.5 percent. Capital City Mayor Nicușor Dan is in third place with 24.2 percent trust and receives significant cross-support (inter-party support) especially from PNL, USR, and PSD voters. The recognition rates of these politicians are also seriously high; while Simion and Dan are recognized by almost the entire society, other leaders are also known by large masses.

Unfortunately, a clear solution to exit the political crisis, on which the majority of the public agrees, could not be found. While a large part of the public blames PSD or all political actors equally for the crisis, none of the proposed prime ministerial candidates won the appreciation of the majority, and more than half of the participants did not find the names suitable. While only 33.2 percent of the voters support early elections as a solution to the crisis, others advocated various coalition government alternatives or a technocratic administration; a significant portion of those who voted stated they had no idea what should be done. Despite all this political tension and uncertainty, the probability of voters going to the polls rose from 48 percent in Nisan to 54.9 percent in Temmuz, revealing the public's tendency to actively participate in politics during this troubled process.