How Will Kazakhstan Be Affected by the Refinery Attacks in Russia?

The attacks launched by Ukraine on oil refineries in Russia have created a severe disruption in the regional energy supply chain. The emergence of fuel shortages in some parts of Russia affects not only the domestic market of this country but also deeply impacts neighboring states. Political scientist Talgat Kaliyev warns that this situation could have far-reaching consequences for the entire Central Asian region, particularly Kazakhstan. While the dangers of energy dependence are once again coming to light, the future of inter-country trade and logistics is becoming uncertain. These developments reveal how fluctuations in global energy markets spill over into local economies.

The countries that will be most affected in the initial phase of the current crisis will be those heavily dependent on fuel imports from Russia. Countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, and Uzbekistan are under the direct impact of disruptions in the Russian fuel flow. The current situation in these countries is expected to lead to a significant increase in fuel prices in the short term. This rise in fuel prices will inevitably be reflected in logistics and transportation costs. As a direct result of this, the increase in transportation costs will drive up the prices of all consumer goods and basic food products, creating general inflationary pressure. Therefore, the peoples of the region will feel a bitter price increase reflected in their wallets not only at the pump but also in grocery shopping.

Kazakhstan, however, is affected by this situation with its own unique and vital issues; because the country's aviation sector is heavily dependent on the supply of jet fuel (aviation kerosene) obtained from Russia. Experts are evaluating different scenarios regarding whether a disruption in these supply lines will bring an urgent fuel shortage to the country. Even if a severe shortage does not occur, it is certain that the cost paid to find and import this fuel will increase. The most direct and visible consequence of this situation will be a significant increase in the prices of airline tickets in Kazakhstan. As the costs of civil aviation rise, both citizens traveling on domestic flights and companies carrying tourists and businesspeople on international routes will have to face new economic realities.

Furthermore, Kazakhstan is at great risk not only in the energy sector but also in its food imports from Russia. The fuel shortage in Russia has a very high potential to disrupt the country's internal agricultural activities. Particularly, agricultural irrigation, the operation of tractors, and harvesting activities are strictly dependent on fuel; the disruption of this process could delay fodder preparation and harvesting campaigns. Such a scenario would lead to a contraction in the domestic food supply and a spike in prices in Russia, thereby reducing the amount of products available for export. The likely reflection of this on neighboring countries like Kazakhstan is a regional food crisis whose effects could be long-term and very broad. This situation serves as a frightening example of how quickly the issue of food security can be affected by military conflicts.

These events also reveal Kazakhstan's longstanding and unresolved strategic energy policy problem. Expert Kaliyev criticizes the country's failure to build a new, fourth refinery to process it, despite exporting only crude oil for decades, as a great shortsightedness. If it had an advanced oil processing infrastructure, the country could easily meet its own needs and even rise to a leading position by closing the deficits in the region. This crisis is also witnessing interesting diplomatic and commercial exchanges, such as Russia's request for 50 thousand tons of Ai-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan; however, officials are making contradictory statements regarding the official applications on this issue. Experts emphasize that, considering market dynamics and current trends, it would not be too late for Kazakhstan to start domestic refinery investments for its own energy independence, even now, and that this step must be taken as soon as possible.