Expert Warning: Seismic Activity in the Marmara Region Is Progressing Towards İstanbul
Wichtigste Punkte
- The study published by GFZ in the journal Science shows that seismic activity in Marmara is migrating towards İstanbul.
- Prof. Dr. Kutoğlu opposed the perception that the earthquake will be small, emphasizing the need to prepare for the worst-case scenario of a magnitude 7.5.
- The slow movement of creeping faults on the surface does not mean they will not become locked at depth and accumulate energy.
- It was reported that official institutions' disaster preparations are planned according to a magnitude 7.5 scenario and that these efforts must be maintained without complacency.
In Zahlen
Şenol Hakan Kutoğlu, Faculty Member at Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, evaluated the latest study published in the journal Science by the GFZ research center in Germany. The research data reveals that the seismic activity in the Marmara Sea is systematically progressing from west to east, meaning towards İstanbul.
Kutoğlu criticized the optimistic perception formed in the public that the earthquake might be small, emphasizing that the dimensions of the danger should not be underestimated. The slow accumulation of energy by creeping faults on the surface does not mean they will not produce an earthquake. The expert drew attention to the possibility of the fault being locked at depth, calling for preparations to continue based on the worst-case scenario of a magnitude 7.5.
Reminding that past catastrophes such as the Kahramanmaraş and Tohoku earthquakes had devastating consequences when scenarios were underestimated, Kutoğlu added that official institutions must continue their current preparations without slowing down.
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Häufige Fragen
- What claim came to the fore in the study published by the German research center GFZ?
- The study suggests that recent earthquakes in the Marmara Sea are in a systematic migration starting from the west and moving east, towards İstanbul.
- Why does Prof. Dr. Şenol Hakan Kutoğlu suggest being prepared for a magnitude 7.5 scenario?
- Kutoğlu states that faults moving slowly (creeping) on the surface can become locked at depth, accumulating energy, and this situation could lead to an earthquake larger than magnitude 7.
- Why did the expert cite the Kahramanmaraş and Tohoku earthquakes as examples?
- These two catastrophes were cited as examples because they proved that earthquakes larger than anticipated in scenarios can occur, and multiple fault segments can rupture simultaneously, causing preparations to be inadequate.
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