Why Gold Is Falling in 2026: 200-Day Breakdown and Four Main Reasons

The international gold market is experiencing a significant pullback from its record level of $5,594.82 in late January 2026. Currently trading around $4,000 per ounce, the precious metal has lost more than a quarter of its value and closed below its 200-day average for the last 31 trading days, creating the longest losing streak since 2022.

Behind this sharp decline lie four main macroeconomic factors: the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the strength of the US dollar, rising real yield rates, and the reaction of the US-Iran tension working against gold. While markets, under the leadership of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, have begun pricing in the possibility of an interest rate hike in September; energy costs stemming from geopolitical tensions triggered interest rate expectations rather than gold's safe-haven status.

While the "death cross" signal, formed by the intersection of the 50- and 200-day averages, is in effect in the market, the 14-day RSI indicator is hovering near the oversold limit in the 30s. Experts state that this situation indicates the decline is excessively prolonged rather than gaining speed, and that the picture to be determined by macroeconomic fundamentals (particularly the Fed's steps) will shape future pricing.