Argentina's economic activity up 1.6% year-on-year in April, down from March

According to data released by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), Argentina's economic activity in April 2026 increased by 1.6% compared to the same month last year. This growth was driven by strong performances in agriculture, livestock, hunting, forestry, as well as mining and quarrying. However, seasonally adjusted figures show a 1.5% decline compared to March, indicating a loss of short-term momentum.

The trend-cycle component of economic activity posted a positive change of 0.3%, suggesting that the long-term growth trend remains intact despite monthly fluctuations. On the negative side, manufacturing and wholesale/retail trade sectors contributed negatively to the annual comparison, dragging down overall activity. These contractions are linked to weak domestic demand and cost pressures.

Economy Minister Toto Caputo commented that the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) accumulated a growth of 2.1% in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in April and a monthly decline of 1.5% in the seasonally adjusted series. These figures indicate that the economy is in a recovery phase but with a volatile trajectory.

Analysts note that growth in agriculture and mining is a positive signal for Argentina's economy, but the contraction in manufacturing and trade is concerning. High inflation and interest rates are negatively affecting consumption and investment decisions. The government's austerity policies are seen as slowing growth in the short term but potentially leading to stabilization in the medium term.

In conclusion, the April data paints a mixed picture for Argentina's economy. While year-on-year growth continues, the monthly decline highlights the economy's fragility. In the coming months, agricultural harvests and developments in the energy sector are expected to be key drivers. Additionally, international commodity prices and global economic conditions will be important factors influencing Argentina's performance.