'Fecr' Operation Empties Green Zone in Iraq: Ministry Crisis Deepens

The heavily fortified Green Zone, located in Iraq's capital, Bağdat, and home to numerous government buildings, has practically turned into a ghost town following the launch of the anti-corruption 'Fecr' operation. According to information provided by security sources, many high-ranking officials, members of parliament, and influential political figures have fled the area or chosen not to return by extending their vacations due to fear of arrest. It is reported that only a few guards and private vehicles remain in the houses evacuated by the ministers, senior civil servants, and their families who previously resided in the area. The fact that the operation coincides with the legislative recess has caused many officials who are abroad or performing the Hajj pilgrimage to indefinitely postpone their return to Iraq. It is stated that this massive escape has brought the country to the brink of a political crisis that will disrupt the government's efforts to fill the remaining ministries.

Iraqi politics was already going through a fragile process due to the government cabinet not being fully formed and nine ministry posts remaining vacant. However, the recent wave of arrests has created serious concerns that attendance in parliamentary sessions will drop dramatically. Parliamentary sources suggest that at least half of the lawmakers might boycott the first sessions of the new legislative term due to the fear and hesitation stemming from the fear of arrest or prosecution. The submission of a judicial request last week to lift the immunity of 19 lawmakers created a deep shockwave not only in the parliament but also across the entire political arena. This climate of uncertainty and fear makes it almost impossible to secure the legal majority required to approve the remaining ministers who will form the government, dragging the country toward an administrative disaster.

It is assessed that significant geopolitical and domestic political dynamics lie behind Prime Minister Ali el-İdî's launch of this anti-corruption campaign in an extremely swift and decisive manner. According to analysts, Prime Minister İdî wants to project the image of a strong and decisive leader ahead of his critical Washington visit planned for next week. Undertaking such a large-scale and risky operation less than two months after coming to power is seen as part of a strategy to assert himself to the international community, particularly to the USA. On the other hand, a large part of the Shia political spectrum, especially the Siyasi Çerçeve Koalisyonu, is expressing discomfort over the arrests being carried out using tanks and heavy military equipment. This military show of force further increases political tensions in the country as it reminds people of past coup attempts and authoritarian regimes.

The balances in the government formation process have been completely disrupted in line with the arrests and resignations. In particular, the arrest of Mutanna es-Samarrai, the leader of the 'Azım' bloc represented in the parliament with 19 lawmakers, has driven political parties into great hesitation in the candidate selection process. Parties are afraid to announce the names of their proposed ministerial candidates, fearing they might be implicated in corruption files and arrested at later stages. Additionally, while it is a matter of curiosity whom the confessions made by Deputy Oil Minister Adnan el-Cumeyli will implicate, appointing new ministers in this atmosphere of uncertainty has become a major political risk. In this context, disagreements on critical issues such as to whom the Interior Ministry will be given, whether its structure will be transformed into a 'federal' form, and the status of the Halklı Seferberlik (Haşd Şabi) forces seem condemned to deadlock.

In Iraqi politics, which is built on racism, sectarian balances, and tribal dynamics, such large-scale anti-corruption operations always lead to massive crises. The 90-day deadline granted by Shia leader Mukteda es-Sadr, who supports Prime Minister İdî but also wields influence over the state, to the government for the surrender of weapons to the state and the clarification of corruption cases is now halfway through. Caught between Sadr's pressure and Washington's expectations, the government is trying to complete its cabinet on one hand while struggling with a deepening crisis of confidence on the other. Considering the funeral ceremony of the country's former religious leader and other delayed political obligations, it is considered almost an impossible scenario for the Bağdat administration to complete the cabinet before the Washington visit. The future of Iraq seems to depend on how long this operation will last and how the political will can extricate itself from this shockwave.