İran Releases Missile Footage Vowing Revenge for the Death of Khamenei

The Iranian armed forces attacked American military infrastructure in Gulf countries, subjecting the ceasefire agreement that went into effect three weeks ago to a major test. This escalation serves as a direct response to the US attacks on Iran's southern and eastern coastal provinces. In propaganda footage released by Iranian state media, a member of the Revolutionary Guards is seen writing a message on a missile. The written message includes a vow to take revenge for the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who lost his life in a US airstrike on 28 February, the first day of the war. These events coincided exactly with the day Khamenei was laid to rest in the shrine in Meşhed and marked the culmination of a week of massive funeral ceremonies and demonstrations. Tension in the region is becoming increasingly alarming due to the limited progress in diplomatic efforts and the possibility of the ceasefire's collapse.

The US military announced that it carried out its latest attacks aimed at keeping the Strait of Hürmüz open, following claims that Iranian forces attacked three oil tankers in the region. The attacks occurred just a few hours after US President Donald Trump stated that he believed the temporary ceasefire with Iran had ended. US Central Command stated that on Wednesday, in addition to the 80 targets struck the previous day, 90 more targets were hit, continuing to 'unforgivably degrade' Iran's capacity to attack commercial maritime navigation. In response, İran announced through the semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency that it had carried out retaliatory attacks against US bases in Bahreyn, Kuveyt, and Katar. Speaking to reporters aboard the Air Force One plane, Trump emphasized the harshness of the US's retaliation policy, stating, 'Every time they hit us, we will hit them twenty times,' and when asked whether a war would break out, he replied that they have many ways to win.

The outbreak of conflict threatens the future of the temporary peace agreement signed between the US and İran three weeks ago, which initiated a 60-day negotiation period. Talks between the two sides had been suspended due to the week-long mass funeral ceremonies for İran's deceased Supreme Leader Khamenei, and no significant progress has been made so far. The US revoked an exemption allowing the sale of new İran oil, a condition of the interim agreement, in retaliation for attacks attributed to the İran Cumhuriyeti on ships in the Strait of Hürmüz. Following this tension, maritime transit was almost completely paralyzed on Thursday, and İran continued to insist that it maintains control over the strategic passage. The deep disagreements between the parties are not limited solely to the control of maritime transit, and the risk of the diplomatic process collapsing is steadily increasing.

The attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hürmüz and the severe escalation on the first day of the conflict caused fluctuations in global energy markets. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell by 0.5 percent to $77.50 per barrel on Thursday, following an increase of more than 5 percent on Wednesday. US Central Command announced that Iran's air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, and missile and drone depots were targeted in the attacks. Iranian media reported that US forces also bombed railway lines, forcing İran to suspend the rail transport line connecting the capital Tahran to Meşhed, where Khamenei is to be buried. This infrastructural damage further disrupts the economic and logistical balance of the region, also negatively affecting civilian life.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of İran, in a statement via Press TV, threatened to expand its attacks, demonstrating its intention to further increase tensions in the region. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the US, stating, 'The US has not yet learned that scaring Türkiye and breaking its commitments is no longer cost-free,' and conveyed the message 'If they attack, the response they receive will be clear' through a post on his X account. Katar Prime Minister Şeyh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and expressed his concerns regarding the military escalation. In a statement from the Katar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it was emphasized that the attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hürmüz have shaken confidence and harmed regional security efforts. The involvement of regional and international actors continues to be of vital importance to prevent a full-scale war and to re-establish diplomatic dialogue.