Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş: Istanbul's fate is not 7.4, earthquake will be below 7

Geology Professor Osman Bektaş has made striking statements regarding the long-expected major earthquake in Istanbul. Bektaş argued that the locking structure of fault lines weakens the possibility of a single, complete rupture, suggesting that the expected tremor could occur below magnitude 7. This statement challenges the long-standing scenario of a 7.4 magnitude earthquake.

Prof. Dr. Bektaş evaluated the results of international research and claimed that the destructive earthquake scenarios of magnitude 7.4 do not fully align with current scientific data. Using the phrase "Istanbul's fate is not 7.4," Bektaş sought to support his claim with scientific evidence. He specifically referred to creep studies conducted by German and Japanese scientists between 2019 and 2023, which measure the fault's energy release through creeping.

Bektaş stated that the probability of fault segments on the Marmara Sea floor rupturing entirely in a single event is low. He indicated that the Kumburgaz segment is not as "fully locked" as previously thought, but rather exhibits creeping behavior. This limits its capacity to generate a large earthquake. He cited the extreme shallowing of the fault's full creep depth and earthquake focal depths from Tekirdağ towards Kumburgaz as concrete evidence for his view.

According to Bektaş, recent studies by foreign scientists show that the Marmara region cannot produce a single mega-rupture along its entire length. He argued that the risk is limited to independent, smaller-scale tremors from smaller segments. This assessment opens up the widely accepted assumptions about the magnitude of the expected Istanbul earthquake to question.

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş concluded his evaluation with the words: "Conclusion: The expected Istanbul earthquake should not be greater than 7, but smaller than 7." This statement has sparked debate in the seismology community and highlights the need for a new risk assessment for Istanbul's population and authorities. Bektaş's claims suggest that current earthquake preparedness plans may need to be revised.