Power struggle in Syria: Four forces, three monopolies, and three scenarios

The fall of Baghdad on December 8, 2024, revealed the decades-long decay accumulated in Syria and the 'positional war' waged by four main socio-political forces within the ruins of power. These forces consist of: the Salafi-jihadist current seeking a sectarian Islamic state; the parasitic bourgeoisie benefiting from the war economy; the nationalist productive class most in favor of building a state but also the weakest; and the women/youth civil society beginning to breathe cautiously. None can dominate alone, showing that fate remains suspended between spoiler and constructive alliances.

The state is structureless, authority is institutionless, and governance is run through three simultaneous monopolies: The security monopoly spreads the Idlib model to 23 million people via the National Security Institution; the financial/oligarchic monopoly repeats Iraq's disastrous reconstruction experience through chambers of commerce and a sovereign wealth fund. The third monopoly is ideological: a silent transformation from jihadist Salafism to 'moderate' Salafism aims to turn the citizen into an absolutely obedient police-object. Although massacres in the Coast, Suwayda, and northeastern Syria prove central coordination, the official narrative presents them as 'uncontrolled militia chaos.'

On the other side, a nationalist alliance for a 'New Syria' is forming: Hundreds of thousands of producer merchants, professionals, workers, and former bureaucrats are waging a peaceful struggle against both sectarian exclusion and economic monopoly. Women and youth refuse to settle for tokenism. International experts (Chatham House, International Crisis Group) characterize the current balance as a 'tribal and gang balance' and warn that trust in Baghdad will erode unless protection/perpetual accountability mechanisms change fundamentally. Three scenarios stand out for the future: Forced coherence (expansion of security-financial pressure), slow fragmentation (autonomy demands and parallel institutions), or genuine consociational pluralism (imposed by the productive bloc).