Latin America's Most Contested Second-Round Elections in the 21st Century: Peru and El Salvador

When examining the presidential elections held in Latin America since the early 21st century, it is seen that El Salvador and Peru are the countries with the most contested second-round (runoff) results. In both countries, the vote difference between candidates fell below 0.3 points, causing political uncertainties and lengthy result-waiting processes. While second-round elections have almost become a rule in Peru, this situation was recorded as an exceptional event in El Salvador in the last twenty-five years. Comprehensive data analyzing thirteen different Latin American countries reveals that there have been similarly neck-and-neck elections in countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Guatemala. However, Peru and El Salvador stand out as the most prominent examples where the votes between candidates were separated by a millimetric difference.

The historical election that took place in El Salvador in March 2014 is remembered as one of the most contested second rounds in the country. At that time, the ruling party candidate Salvador Sánchez Cerén defeated his rival Norman Quijano by a margin of only 6.364 votes to sit in the presidential seat. This extraordinarily small margin corresponded to a vote percentage of 0.22 percent, plunging the country into a political limbo that lasted for days. The Salvadoran people, who waited for days for the results to become clear, experienced great tension during the vote recount and result verification process. International media organizations, especially BBC Mundo, conveyed in detail to the world public opinion the delays caused by this extraordinarily narrow margin and the political crisis environment in the country. However, such a contested election has not been repeated in El Salvador, and no election has gone to a second round in the last quarter-century.

In contrast, the situation in Peru follows a completely different course, and second-round elections have almost become a political norm. All six presidential elections held since the beginning of the century, including this year's, have gone to a second round and resulted in a breaking point. Keiko Fujimori's constant presence as a prominent candidate, especially in the last three elections, is shown as one of the main reasons for the polarization in Peruvian politics and the votes between parties being so close to each other. In 2016, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski won the election by surpassing Fujimori by a margin of only 41.057 votes and 0.24 percent. Five years later, in the 2021 elections, Pedro Castillo defeated Fujimori with a 0.25 percent (44.263 votes) advantage, maintaining Peru's tradition of contested elections.

The recent Peru elections in 2026 did not break this historical tradition, resulting once again in a millimetric difference. Fuerza Popular party leader Keiko Fujimori gained an advantage of 0.27 percent (49.641 votes) against Juntos por el Perú party candidate Roberto Sánchez. In the first round, it was observed that the combined votes of Fujimori and Sánchez remained at only 29.2 percent, revealing that a large portion of the electorate did not favor either candidate. Sandro Macassi Lavander, a Doctor of Sociology at the Pontifical Catholic University (PUCP), analyzed this situation as two opposing voter bases being very close to each other but having no real enthusiasm for either leader. The fact that 70 percent of the electorate did not vote for these two candidates in the first round proves that the elections are built on 'anti-vote' dynamics and that the society is deeply divided.

A comparative analysis of thirteen countries in Latin America with a second-round election system shows that contested races also occur outside of Peru and El Salvador. Elections with extremely narrow margins between candidates have also been recorded in countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Guatemala. Such millimetric results can directly affect not only the domestic politics of the respective countries but also regional stability and international relations. Situations such as delays in election results, repeated vote counting, and candidates' refusal to accept the results create moments of crisis where democratic institutions are tested. These consecutive crises experienced by Peru reveal the weakness of political leadership in the country and the electorate's lack of confidence in the current party system. Considering the experiences of other countries in the region, it is clearly seen that while the second-round system reflects the will of the majority, it can sometimes lead to political paralysis.