ABD cancels sanction waiver for İran oil

The United States government officially announced that it has canceled the temporary license suspending sanctions on İran oil. This decision came following attacks on three oil tankers in the Hürmüz Boğazı. While the US administration described İran's actions as absolutely unacceptable, Hazine Departmanı officials warned that İran's movements in the strait would have serious consequences. The termination of the said license also means the suspension of the memorandum of understanding signed between Washington and Tahran on 17 Haziran. This development also casts uncertainty over the future of negotiations for a ceasefire and a final peace agreement between the two countries.

The attacks in the Hürmüz Boğazı were detected by the UKMTO, UK's maritime security organization. According to the organization's report, three ships were targeted by shells while passing through during the attack; however, there were no casualties and no environmental damage occurred. Nevertheless, the events caused great concern in terms of international maritime security and global energy supply. Katar Minister of Foreign Affairs Majid Al Ansari held İran responsible for the attack on a liquefied gas tanker near its coast, stating that it is legally entirely responsible. The Suudi Arabistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs similarly condemned the attack on the Suudi Arabistan-flagged tanker named Wedyan passing through the strait and held İran responsible.

The Tahran administration, on the other hand, rejected these accusations and gave a counter-reaction. According to IRNA, the İran state news agency, the government spokesperson described Katar's claims as questionable and contrary to neighborhood principles, deeming them unacceptable. This rhetoric reveals that diplomatic channels in the region are strained and trust between the parties is gradually decreasing. While Katar called on İran to stop endangering international maritime traffic and energy supply with the attacks, Suudi Arabistan issued a similar condemnation. Following these developments, İran's regional strategy and its attitude towards internationally recognized sea lanes have begun to be examined more closely.

The cancellation of the sanction waiver for İran oil was felt immediately in global energy markets, and oil prices gained an upward momentum. While the price per barrel of Brent oil rose by 3.01 percent to 74.16 dollars, WTI, the US reference oil, closed at 70.44 dollars with a 2.76 percent gain. These price increases demonstrate how great a risk the tension at a critical oil transit point like the Hürmüz Boğazı poses for global energy supply. Investors fear that supply disruptions may be inevitable if regional conflicts intensify. This volatility in the markets once again highlighted the direct impact of geopolitical uncertainties on the trajectory of the global economy.

The license canceled by the ABD Hazine Departmanı allowed the sale and transportation of İran oil until 21 Ağustos 2026. Taking this step indicates that Washington has returned to its maximum pressure policy applied towards Tahran. If the ceasefire and peace process reached between the two countries collapses, the possibility of a broader military conflict in the Orta Doğu may arise. This crisis, which also involves regional powers, brings along the international community's search for urgent intervention and diplomatic solutions. In the upcoming period, whether the negotiations can be revived or the tension will escalate further is being closely followed by the world.