Colombian Power Grid Faces Greatest Risk of Blackout Since the 1990s

Electricity demand in Colombia has reached its highest levels in history, recording a record consumption level of 262.65 gigawatt-hours daily. The maximum power value measured in the country's National Interconnected System in July also reached 12,475 megawatts, surpassing a previously unseen level. According to data from grid operator XM, demand increased by 6.28% compared to the same month last year. The Caribbean region stands out with a remarkable increase rate of 8.4%, and the Guaviare region with 13.4%. No region in the country is exempt from this consumption explosion; on the contrary, demand is steadily rising everywhere.

This massive increase in demand comes just as the country is preparing for one of the toughest winter periods it has seen in decades. The company's recent reports contain serious warnings that the current firm energy capacity is insufficient to meet the projected future demand. The gap between projected demand for the 2026-2027 period and available energy reaches an annual level of 3,906 gigawatt-hours. Only a very small portion, exactly 14.7%, of the 4,475 megawatts of additional capacity planned to be added to the system has been commissioned. These data clearly reveal how fragile the country's energy supply has become.

One of the biggest triggers of this crisis is the expected severity of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is stated to have a 100% certainty of impacting the region. The probability of this meteorological event reaching very strong levels between October and December is estimated at 81%. The greatest threat posed by El Niño is the critical drop in dam water levels due to decreased rainfall. Already, the country's hydrological system has been receiving water contributions below historical averages for two consecutive months, and the Caribbean region can only draw 58% of its normal water inflow. Worst-case scenario simulations predict that at the most critical point of the summer period, main dams could recede to the point of complete depletion, down to 0%.

Another major issue deepening the system's troubles is the maintenance work at the two most critical hydroelectric plants feeding the country's east. The second-stage operation of the 1,000 megawatt Chivor plant will be halted between October 2026 and June 2027. During the same period, the 1,250 megawatt Guavio plant will be completely emptied due to work on its water intake structure and will have to operate solely on the instantaneous amount of incoming water for a while. These two massive facilities form the main heart meeting the electricity needs of settlements such as Bogotá, Cundinamarca, Meta, and Guaviare. The grid operator states that if these two plants are withdrawn from the system, meeting the demand in these regions will become mathematically impossible.

The combination of all these adverse factors leaves Colombia facing the highest risk of energy rationing since the major blackouts in the dark days of the 1990s. In the 58-page report published by the company, the word 'rationing' is specifically emphasized exactly five times as a direct danger sign. Additionally, short-term maintenance work at the liquefied gas regasification facility in Cartagena further threatens security in the Caribbean region, which is already experiencing 37 different emergency restrictions. Experts state that planned power outages severely affecting daily life and industry within the next two years are inevitable. The magnitude of the crisis compels the government and relevant authorities to immediately review their emergency action plans and new energy investment strategies.