Micro Earthquakes in Marmara Alert the Scientific World: 7-Day Critical Process Begins

Recent data shared by the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) revealed that significant seismic activity has occurred in the Central Marmara Pit. A micro-earthquake swarm, occurring at a depth of approximately 6 to 9 kilometers in the region and remaining below magnitude 3.5, was detected. Geologist Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş, a former faculty member of Karadeniz Technical University, stated that this seismic activity provides extremely important data for understanding the current behavior of the fault lines in and around Istanbul. Experts believe that, even if small in scale, such intensifications offer a critical opportunity to reassess the seismic map of the region. The data in question has once again highlighted the need for continuous monitoring of the complex fault structure at the bottom of the Marmara Sea.

Prof. Dr. Bektaş shared his evaluations on the subject in detail via his social media accounts to inform the public. It was determined that the massive stress accumulating over time in a specific section of the fault line was redistributed and the energy was partially released thanks to these small surface ruptures. However, the scientist strongly emphasized that such seismic clustering cannot be considered the definitive precursor of a devastating major earthquake that may occur in the future. Nonetheless, he stressed that these movement processes on the fault line must be monitored very carefully and uninterruptedly in order to accurately analyze the risk of potential seismic activity in the region. Such scientific data requires long-term observation to avoid any forecasting errors.

Following these micro-earthquake activities, scientists' eyes and ears are turned to the 3 to 7-day time frame following the event. During this critical seven-day period, it is a matter of great curiosity whether a new and stronger earthquake with a magnitude of 4 or above will be generated in the depths of the Marmara Sea. The data to be obtained as a result of this process is considered one of the most critical scientific indicators, as it reflects the current dynamics and energy accumulation capacity of the fault. If higher magnitude tremors are recorded during this process, this will provide new and concrete data regarding the extent of stress accumulation in the region. In the contrary situation, that is, if the seismic activity slows down and calms, theories suggesting that the fault line has a different dynamic structure will gain strength.

The concept of 'fault locking', which is frequently encountered in seismology terminology, is explained as the situation where the fault line remains stationary due to frictional force despite the moving tectonic plates and continuously accumulates destructive energy. The 'creep' effect, shown as an opposite situation, means that the fault line slowly, safely, and continuously releases the dangerous energy it accumulates through small and continuous slips, without the need to produce a potentially large and destructive earthquake. The recent statements of Prof. Dr. Bektaş strongly bring up the possibility that the fault extending within the Marmara Sea may not be fully locked. It is suggested that the thick and complex sediment layer on the seabed could mislead advanced technology satellite and acoustic measurement devices, hiding the actual movement of the fault, that is, its creep state. This situation is highly important as it shows that surface measurements may not always fully reflect the true nature of the fault deep below.

At this point, it is suggested that the common assumptions and popular beliefs that the entirety of Istanbul's Eastern Marmara and Islands Fault is fully locked may actually be just one scenario. Prof. Dr. Bektaş states that the lack of systematic observation of recurring earthquakes at specific intervals does not provide sufficient and scientific evidence on its own that the fault is definitively and clearly 100% locked. It is expressed that for a mega-city like Istanbul, conducting seismic risk analyses focusing solely on a single massive earthquake model larger than 7 limits the city's preparedness process negatively and creates a flawed perception. Experts report that the accurate and detailed interpretation of whether the fault is locked or prone to slow and continuous slipping (creep) will directly affect the maximum earthquake magnitude the region can produce. For this reason, it is emphasized that all seismic activities in the region should be discussed within a broad scientific spectrum, without becoming entrenched in fixed ideas, accompanied by multiple earthquake models.