Defense Spending and Ukraine Are the Main Topics on the Table at the NATO Summit in Ankara

The course of the war in Ukraine, the enhancement of collective defense capabilities, and the future of the transatlantic balance constitute the main agenda items of the NATO Summit held in Ankara, described by many observers as a critical turning point. The summit opens its doors in an environment where Russia is intensifying its air strikes against Kyiv and excitement is mounting over an upcoming face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. On the negotiating table lies not only potential military aid to be provided to Ukraine but also the issue of increasing the defense budgets of member countries. Additionally, vital topics such as strengthening the West's military industrial capacity and developing a joint strategy against new security threats to the alliance will be addressed. Amidst all these headlines, during a period where the global security architecture is being reshaped, the international public eye has turned to Ankara.

In the background of the summit, Russia's policy of heavy military pressure applied on the ground, despite its peace rhetoric, stands out. Moscow has made it a habit to stage a show of force by targeting Kyiv with drones and missiles before every critical diplomatic meeting. In response, US President Donald Putin claimed to be intent on ending the war as soon as possible, inviting the parties to the negotiating table in Ankara. However, European leaders harbor deep skepticism regarding Russia's true intentions and remain resolute in their unwavering support for Ukraine. With the participation of Zelensky, a strategic diplomatic struggle, not just defense, is at play on the ground this time.

The presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ankara and his active role in the leaders' dialogue reflect the strongest position Kyiv has achieved since the beginning of the war. Having struck heavy blows to Russia's energy infrastructure and refineries thanks to long-range and high-capacity drones, Ukraine plans to use this military success at the negotiating table as diplomatic leverage. Many NATO leaders, including Finnish President Alexander Stubb, believe that Kyiv's new strategic vision could convince Moscow to come to the negotiating table. Furthermore, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized that the massive military losses suffered on the Putin front are a tragedy for the Russian people, but they represent a great strategic victory for Ukraine. The leaders appear to have reached a full consensus that maintaining international support mechanisms for the transfer of necessary weapon systems and ammunition to Ukraine is imperative.

One of the most anticipated and debated parts of the summit in Ankara will be the crises surrounding the West's military industrial capacity and defense spending. Although defense budgets are increasing day by day, it is noted that the production capacity of the transatlantic military-industrial ecosystem has reached its limits, carrying the risk of triggering global inflation. While the US administration is seriously warning European countries and Canada to raise their defense budgets to the 5% target set in The Hague, it also voices criticism that the defense budget is not being shared fairly. On the other hand, the NATO Secretary General offers a different perspective, stating that the core defense and security expenditures of European countries are already around 4% of their GDP. However, Washington's claims of imposing sanctions or limiting cooperation with countries that do not increase their defense spending could open the door to new tensions within the alliance.

Amidst all these complex balances, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte dismissed concerns regarding the fragmentation of the alliance, emphasizing the importance of the restructuring process. He explicitly stated that Europe's over-reliance on the US for security had reached an 'unhealthy' level in the past and that this situation needed to change. It is noted that sharing defense burdens more equitably will not only make NATO a fairer institution but also transform it into a 'much more lethal' force in military terms. In this regard, it is argued that the US pressuring its allies and adopting a demanding stance aligns with the long-term interests of the alliance. The ultimate goal of the summit can be summarized as finding ways to provide uninterrupted support to Ukraine and elevating Europe's defense mechanism to a level where it can stand on its own two feet.