Irak took a step to renew the Turkish pipeline agreement expiring at the end of July

Irak has established an official government committee aimed at reaching a new agreement with Türkiye, just before the oil pipeline agreement in effect for decades expires next month. The Bağdat administration is making a massive effort to find an alternative export channel to the narrowing Hürmüz Boğazı and to secure the oil flow. This initiative once again highlights the vital importance that regional geopolitical tensions and the increasingly complex nature of energy logistics hold for Irak. According to statements by Irak Petrol Bakanlığı Sözcüsü Salim El-Rakabi, the newly formed committee includes not only the energy ministry but also officials from the finance and foreign ministries, as well as representatives from the Kürdistan region. The fundamental goal of the said committee was stated to be sitting at the table with the Turkish side to negotiate a comprehensive and long-term text that will replace the current agreement.

The decision to terminate the historic pact, which regulates the Kirkük-Ceyhan pipeline and was first signed 52 years ago, was officially communicated to Bağdat by Ankara in Temmuz 2025. The Turkish government announced that the current agreement would lose its validity as of 27 Temmuz of this year and that a brand-new arrangement was needed within the framework of bilateral relations. The fate of this pipeline, which has played a key role in transporting Irak crude oil to Europe and other global markets for many years, currently constitutes the focal point of diplomatic negotiations between the two countries. Officials emphasize that due to the approaching expiration date of the current agreement, it is inevitable to rapidly accelerate the negotiation process and increase the pace of exchange of views between the parties. Bağdat is showing great determination to reach clear and permanent understandings with Ankara to ensure that there are no disruptions or interruptions in daily export operations.

Türkiye presented Irak, which was OPEC's second-largest oil producer last year, with a much more comprehensive agreement proposal last year, covering not only pipeline operations but also cooperation in energy and other strategic sectors. Bağdat officials stated at the time that they had examined and evaluated this proposal in detail. The visit planned to be made by Irak Başbakanı Ali El-Zaidi to Ankara next month is expected to be decisive in the finalization of this new era pipeline agreement. In diplomatic contacts between the two countries, not only energy security but also regional trade and mutual economic dependencies will be among the main topics on the table. These high-level meetings hold the potential to create a formula for mutual gain by reconciling the interests of the two neighboring countries.

Recent geopolitical developments in the region, and especially the war İran entered into with the ABD and İsrail, have seriously increased the risks that the Hürmüz Boğazı poses for Irak oil. This narrow waterway, which was closed by İran at the height of the conflicts and could only be partially reopened this month, deeply affected the exports made from Irak's southern fields. Because the waterway still operates under restrictions, Irak's oil export levels have dropped to one-third compared to the pre-war period. In this crisis environment, pipelines passing through Türkiye have become not just a preference for Irak, but a vital gateway to reach global energy markets. Hamza Cevahri, one of the former petroleum engineers of Irak's state-owned Basra Petrol Şirketi, also states that following the recent developments in the region, Irak will rely more heavily on pipelines and therefore needs a solid agreement with Türkiye.

Looking at the export data, Irak restarted a daily crude oil export of 200,000 barrels through the Kirkük-Ceyhan pipeline in Mart to somewhat compensate for the massive loss caused by the disruption in the Hürmüz Boğazı. However, this figure remains quite limited considering the country's massive export potential of over 4 million barrels. In the first four-month period of this year, Irak's total oil exports realized at approximately 236 million barrels, while this daily average volume of 1.9 million barrels provided the state with a revenue of about 16 billion dollars. These data, announced by the Irak Petrol Pazarlama Kurumu, clearly reveal how fragile the country's economy is and how urgently it needs new export routes. For the Bağdat government, the new pipeline agreement to be signed with Türkiye is not just an economic preference, but is considered an essential strategic necessity to maintain the country's economic stability.