F-35 and S-400 Crisis in Türkiye-US Relations: How Will the Resolution Process Work?

A new phase is being experienced in the long-standing defense and foreign policy tensions between Türkiye and the United States of America. Following recent diplomatic contacts between Ankara and Washington, the F-35 fighter jet program and the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system issue, which is one of the biggest crisis points between the two countries, has come to the agenda again. A comprehensive analysis published by BBC lays out the diplomatic dynamics behind this process and possible ways of resolution. The strategic positions of both countries within the NATO alliance cause this issue to go beyond being a bilateral problem and take on a global dimension. Therefore, how the process will unfold is closely followed by the international public opinion.

The main source of the problem emerged with Türkiye's decision to purchase the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, rejecting the offers from China and Israel. The Washington administration showed a harsh reaction to the issue, claiming that this system posed a threat to NATO radars and especially to the secret technology of F-35 fighter jets. Subsequently, the United States of America decided to remove Türkiye from the F-35 program, which it had jointly produced and been fully integrated into for years. This situation led to a deep crisis of confidence in the defense industry and caused relations between the two allies to drop to one of their lowest historical levels. The Turkish military's effort to meet its air defense needs and the US's technological security concerns formed the main axes of this diplomatic impasse.

The legal and economic repercussions of this crisis have also been quite severe. The CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions, which emerged within the scope of American legislation, were the first concrete step directly targeting the Turkish defense industry. Within the scope of these sanctions, restrictions were imposed on various Turkish officials and defense sector organizations. In addition, the fate of Türkiye's millions of dollars in financial contributions to the F-35 program and the status of the Turkish aircraft removed from the production line remained uncertain for a long time. This economic and legal process revealed how fragile defense cooperation between allied countries can be. As a result of lengthy negotiations and diplomatic processes, taking steps to lift these sanctions and normalize the process has come to the agenda.

The extensive analysis prepared by BBC details the potential lifting of CAATSA sanctions and the potential roadmap for Türkiye's return to the F-35 program. In this process, the fate of the S-400 systems is of critical importance; because one of the strict conditions of the USA is generally the decommissioning, storage, or sale of these systems. The Turkish side is known for its persistent attitude to keep the transferred systems for its national security without returning them. In this context, creative diplomacy methods and intermediate formulas that will establish mutual trust are sought at the negotiation table revealed by the analysis. It is emphasized that the return to the F-35 program will not only be about aircraft deliveries, but will be a complex process that will require the complete repair of joint production, technology transfer, and partnerships in the defense industry.

Looking towards the future, resolving the F-35 and S-400 impasse or at least reducing it to a manageable level is of great importance for regional and global balances. Türkiye's possession of modern air defense systems and fifth-generation fighter jets, playing a key role in the balances in strategic regions such as the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, continues to be a critical element for the regional security architecture. Therefore, the steps between Ankara and Washington harbor a dynamic that will affect not only these two countries, but all NATO allies and non-allied actors. The extent to which the two countries can use their diplomatic, military, and economic channels in a harmonious manner is among the most fundamental elements that will determine the final resolution of the crisis. All these experiences once again prove that defense technologies and military alliances in a multipolar world are built on highly complex balances.