Pressure Strategy in Iran Insufficient for Regime Change

The article argues that US sanctions and Israeli military operations have created pressure on the Iranian regime, but that this pressure alone will not lead to a political transformation. While both approaches restrict the regime's resources and degrade its military capabilities, they fail to answer the question of how an authoritarian system can be replaced with a viable alternative.

The 12-Day War demonstrated Israel's ability to reach Iran's most sensitive institutions and personnel; however, military success does not automatically create political change. The distinction between the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic presents a strategic opportunity to weaken the regime's 'national existence defense' narrative. If this distinction is erased by civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, the regime could strengthen its own legitimacy.

The removal of leaders (Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba Khamenei) is insufficient due to the regime's institutional ecosystem (IRGC, Basij, intelligence, judiciary, bureaucracy, religious foundations). Economic pressure also fails to break the regime's resilience. External powers cannot substitute the political will of Iranians; the pressure strategy must be linked to a political transition by minimizing civilian harm and providing assurances to those within the regime who wish to defect.