ISW: Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are increasing fuel prices and deepening the shortage

According to the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), fuel prices for end consumers in Russia continue to rise steadily as a result of concentrated Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. According to data reported by the Interfax news agency, significant increases in gasoline and diesel fuel prices were recorded in the June 2026 period. The data reveals that the price of standard AI-92 gasoline in the country has increased by 7.3 percent. During the same period, the price of AI-95 gasoline increased by 6.7 percent, and the price of AI-98 gasoline increased by 3.1 percent. In addition to these, a significant price hike of 7.1 percent in diesel fuel prices has also been reported.

Long-range attacks by Ukrainian forces targeting Russian refineries are cited among the primary causes of disruptions in fuel supply and price hikes. Furthermore, attacks on logistics routes leading to the occupied territories are also negatively impacting the supply chain. Analysts state that these supply shocks coincide with the traditionally increased fuel demand brought by the summer tourism season. The combination of seasonal demand growth and supply disruptions makes the upward pressure on prices much more pronounced. This situation creates a crisis picture that directly affects both the transportation costs of civilian citizens and regional trade.

Fuel shortage concerns across Russia have reached alarming proportions, affecting a very wide geographical area. According to ISW reports, it has been officially recorded that at least 78 out of a total of 83 federal regions in the country are experiencing gasoline shortages. This situation proves that the problem is not limited to regions close to the border but has spread to the interior parts of the country. This same fuel shortage is also severely felt in the Ukrainian regions held under Russian occupation. If Moscow cannot close the gaps in its air defense systems, these strategic attacks by Ukraine are likely to intensify further and the situation is expected to deteriorate. It is anticipated that these developments will severely strain both civilian fuel supply and military logistics on the front line.

Alongside land-based attacks, maritime energy transport routes have also increasingly become a focal point of the conflict. ISW's analysis draws attention to Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian fuel tanks in the Sea of Azov. These air and sea attacks have forced Russia to restrict certain maritime routes and halt commercial activities. Data obtained by Starboard Maritime Intelligence confirms this situation with a dramatic decline in commercial ship traffic. Between June 30 and July 11, a probable 55 percent decrease in ship traffic in the Sea of Azov was detected. Allegedly, this decrease stems from ships exhibiting defensive behavior by turning off their signaling systems to hide their routes in order to avoid potential Ukrainian attacks.

The report by the Institute for the Study of War also details rising tensions in the field of cybersecurity alongside physical clashes. The report brings to light information suggesting that Russia has conducted a likely cyber operation against NATO members and Ukraine. According to reports by the British newspaper The Telegraph in early July, based on Dutch intelligence services, it is claimed that Kremlin-linked cyber groups have taken over certain civilian security systems. It is stated that the mentioned cyber attack involves the hacking of cameras and video intercom systems in European countries in order to monitor routes of military equipment heading to Ukraine. This operation, which targeted a number of European countries including the Netherlands, is assessed to be aimed at monitoring the military logistics and weapon shipments sent to the region.