As Typhoon Bavi approaches, residents in eastern regions of China are increasing their precautions against potential disaster, while some content creators on social media have started sharing their own forecasts using AI-supported weather models. These amateur прогнозы, prepared with data obtained from open-source AI systems, rapidly reached large audiences and attracted attention. Numerous bloggers presenting themselves as 'weather enthusiasts' on social media began offering daily forecasts and even detailed meteorological analyses to their followers. This development is considered a new and controversial example of weather science becoming more accessible with AI. However, these amateur forecasts, which have not passed the approval of competent authorities, carry the potential to cause confusion and unnecessary panic among the public.
China's official state media has launched a harsh criticism campaign against these amateur meteorological broadcasts, drawing attention to the legal dimension of the issue. China Media Group (CMG) emphasized that some bloggers act as weather experts relying solely on raw data from AI models, but that these tools lack a professional meteorological evaluation process. Authorities warned that the public could be misled and unnecessary security concerns could arise. Official institutions argue that weather forecasting is a highly complex process and should only be published by state-approved meteorological agencies. In this context, it is stated that publishing forecasts by unauthorized individuals is not only an ethical issue but also a serious legal violation.
At the center of the debate are open-source AI weather models, which have developed rapidly in recent years and are expected to revolutionize meteorological fields. These new generation AI tools can analyze massive atmospheric data sets to produce much faster and lower-cost forecasts compared to traditional physics-based supercomputer models. Developers claim that these systems can demonstrate superior performance, especially in predicting long-term weather events and the possible trajectories of tropical cyclones. However, experts note that these technologies are still in the experimental stage and may produce erroneous results when accounting for sudden changes in the dynamic structure of the atmosphere. It is believed that processing and disseminating this AI-generated data to the masses by inexperienced individuals leads to information pollution.
Legal experts and authorities are drawing the legal boundaries of bloggers' actions by evaluating the issue within the framework of China's strict broadcasting and meteorological regulations. According to Chinese laws, it is prohibited for individuals or institutions without official meteorological broadcasting authority to make public weather forecasts and present them as a service. Relevant regulations, citing the critical importance of weather information for national security and public health, keep broadcasting in this area strictly under state control. The fact that these bloggers attempt to convert their amateur forecasts into paid content or premium subscriptions via social media further aggravates the nature of the offense. Therefore, authorities are expected to impose administrative fines or content blocking sanctions against amateur weather broadcasters in the coming days.
These developments, occurring as Typhoon Bavi approaches, reveal the tension between state control and the innovative opportunities offered by AI in the process of disseminating information during disasters. Even while supporting technology, the Chinese government displays a decisive stance on maintaining the central authority's monopoly when it comes to disaster management and public order. On the other hand, this situation has sparked an in-depth discussion within technology and weather communities on how innovative tools can be used safely and responsibly for the public benefit. In the future, state institutions may aim to strengthen official forecasts by integrating these amateur AI tools into their own systems, or they may introduce a new regulatory framework for these models. For now, the public is urged to rely solely on announcements from official meteorological agencies and to avoid speculative content on social media during critical natural events such as typhoons.
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