Chinese Scholar Warned: U.S. Decline Does Not Mean Collapse

A leading Chinese academic and commentator, in his recent assessments on global power dynamics, emphasized that while the United States is experiencing a relative decline internationally, this does not equate to an absolute collapse. Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, analyzed the dynamics of the current global system and called on other nations to exercise caution. According to Yongnian, the prevalent belief regarding the waning of U.S. power is merely a deceptive perception that carries the potential to lead to grave strategic errors in the future. The reason for this is that an _absolute power capable of replacing America's position on the world stage has yet to emerge. Consequently, assuming that the U.S. has completely lost its current hegemonic position is considered a highly risky approach in terms of international relations.

The scholar grounds this view by stating that despite the erosion in its global dominance, the U.S. continues to endure as a global hegemonic power. He expresses that for a country to maintain its hegemonic status, strength within its own internal dynamics is not sufficient; the condition of rival powers is also a determining factor. Zheng Yongnian openly acknowledges that he agrees with other analysts on the point that America's military, economic, and cultural influence has relatively diminished. However, he fiercely criticizes the notion that this decline means it has completely lost its capacity to shape the international system. This is because, within the existing global military and economic architecture, an alternative power that is strong, institutionalized, and globally accepted enough to replace Washington has not yet fully materialized.

In this context, Yongnian issues a stern warning that rising powers, including China, and other global actors must not underestimate the U.S. During this transitional period of shifting dominance, taking hasty strategic steps based on the assumption that the American system is weakening could entail significant perils. The academic does not hesitate to describe such a mindset as a mistake that could be highly difficult, or even a "fatal error," to compensate for in the future. Since it is highly probable that a hegemonic power, during times of crisis, might give harsh and unpredictable reactions to secure its interests from the existing system. Therefore, it is deemed essential for all states competing in the international arena to conduct much more careful, analytical, and long-term diplomacy.

These statements add a different and analytical dimension to the discussions on the transition to a multipolar world, which has been gaining momentum globally. In recent years, the desire of Beijing, Moscow, and other rising economies to have a greater say in global governance indicates that American influence has created deep cracks within the current system. However, as Zheng Yongnian emphasizes, this multipolar stirring within the system does not actualize a scenario where the U.S. would suddenly find itself outside the system. The transformation of old institutions or the rise of new powers necessitates a complex and multidimensional adaptation process that can take years or even decades. Consequently, the decline of the U.S. should be read as the harbinger of a long, slow, and bumpy global power transition process, rather than a sudden collapse.

From this perspective, it becomes evident that the next phase of global geopolitical rivalry must be managed with profound strategic patience rather than short-term assumptions. These views, expressed by Zheng Yongnian during his Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area examination, continue to resonate particularly within Asia-centric academic and political circles. This perspective reveals that not only the U.S., but also powers perceived as rivals, need to re-evaluate their domestic and foreign policies. As a result, it is a fact that even if U.S. hegemony experiences a relative decline, the weight of its military and economic instruments in the international arena persists. Instead of ignoring this reality, it is inevitable for the international community to focus on pragmatic, multidimensional, and realistic policies while managing current global tensions.