The first public opinion poll published by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) for the year 2026 reveals that the political landscape in the region is undergoing a radical change. The poll results indicate a redistribution of vote shares in the regional elections and a significant shift in voter preferences. While a remarkable breaking point is being experienced in the competition among pro-independence parties, various fluctuations are also observed in the votes of mainstream political movements. These data are of critical importance in determining the future course of Catalan politics. Even if delayed, the published barometer provides the essential keys needed to interpret the current political atmosphere in the region.
One of the most striking findings of the poll is that the upward trend of the party named Aliança Catalana has solidified. The aforementioned right-wing pro-independence party holds the potential to surpass Junts by securing more seats. This scenario means a major debacle for Junts, the party of former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont; as polls predict that the party's current number of MPs could be halved. This dramatic shift in the voter base reveals the depth of ideological and strategic polarization within the pro-independence bloc. The decline of Junts is considered the clearest indicator that the traditional balance of power, which has long dominated regional politics, is being reshaped.
On the other hand, the Republican Left (ERC) party is also consolidating its recovery trend in the polls. Along with slight changes in its vote share, the party is dragging the struggle for second place into a fierce competition with the extreme droite (far-right) pro-independence bloc. When evaluated at the level of the National Congress of Spain, the situation takes on a slightly different character. While the Socialists (PSC) emerge far ahead in Catalonia's representation in the Congress, they are followed by ERC. The strong communication and media impact created by ERC's MP and prominent figure Gabriel Rufián positively feeds the party's vote potential on a national scale. This situation helps the party maintain its effectiveness in both regional and national politics.
The situation of the governing Socialists (PSC), on the other hand, paints a rather complex picture. Despite currently governing the Government of Catalonia (Generalitat) and enjoying the political advantages of being in power, a slight decline in the party's support rate is observed. However, even the current decline is not enough to weaken the party's strong possibility of winning the regional elections by a clear margin. PSC maintains its position to sustain its leadership thanks to the internal conflicts and disarray experienced by its rivals. Nevertheless, the socialists' inability to sufficiently translate their government performance into votes brings along some strategic question marks for the party administration in the upcoming period. This balanced yet cautious structure in the electorate's attitude makes the final shape of the election results a matter of curiosity.
The comprehensive barometer data published by the CEO addresses not only the current vote shares of the parties but also the social agenda and priorities. According to the research, there has been a revival in social support for the idea of independence, and this rate has reached its highest level since the court ruling regarding the past process. Beyond the political agenda, the housing crisis and shelter problem were identified as the biggest and unresolved issues on the Catalan public's agenda. Citizens point out that economic difficulties and the daily cost of living are steadily increasing. All these socio-economic and political dynamics are considered harbingers that the processes Catalonia will go through in the upcoming period will be multidimensional and challenging.
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