Why is the rebellion in Mali important for Moscow?

A coup attempt is underway in Mali, though it has not yet managed to overthrow the ruling junta. The country's military leader, General Assimi Goïta, appeared in public after hiding for days, claiming that the "situation is under control," but this claim was not found credible. Meanwhile, rebel forces consisting of Al-Qaeda-linked groups and Tuareg separatists have captured provincial towns and are calling for the siege of the capital, Bamako. The military junta in Mali is in a difficult position as part of the violence, civilian suffering, and international intrigues frequently seen in the region.

Coordinated attacks were carried out across Mali on 25 Nisan, laying bare the junta's fragile control over the country. The Al-Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has been waging a rebellion in the region for over a decade, joined forces with Tuareg separatist groups for the first time to launch simultaneous attacks on multiple cities hundreds of kilometers apart. Among the targets were the capital Bamako, Gao, Kidal, Sévaré, and the garrison town of Kati. A suicide bomber drove his vehicle into the home of Defense Minister General Sadio Camara, killing the minister, his wife, two grandchildren, and several civilians. Camara was one of the most influential figures in the Malian junta and was seen as the country's future leader. At the same time, he was the key architect of Mali's military alliance with Russia. The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), consisting of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nijer, has turned away from former colonial power France and towards Russia in recent years.

Russian mercenaries in the form of the Wagner Group and later the Africa Corps supported the military juntas in the Sahel. Following the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nijer, French troops withdrew from their former colonies. However, during the recent rebel attacks, Russian fighters were driven out of the northern city of Kidal amid jeers. The Kremlin-controlled paramilitary group Africa Corps described the rebel attacks as a "coup attempt" backed by "Western intelligence services." RT amplified these claims, accusing France and the West of inciting violence, while simultaneously claiming that Russian fighters had successfully repelled the rebels. In 2024, Ukrainian military intelligence announced that it had provided information to Tuareg rebels to ambush and rout a Wagner convoy, killing dozens of Russian mercenaries. Both Mali and Nijer severed diplomatic relations with Kiev. Burkina Faso described Kiev as a destabilizing force in the region, effectively turning the Sahel into a front in Russia's war against Ukraine.

The Kremlin's combination of disinformation and mercenaries exploited growing anti-Western sentiments in the Sahel, winning Russia a propaganda victory in the region. Former colonial powers like France could not help themselves; this can also be seen in Madagaskar, which most recently expelled a French diplomat and accused Paris of stirring up unrest. However, the success of Russian propaganda is not matched on the ground. As Mali struggles to contain a rebel alliance that has gained fresh momentum and energy, Moscow's control is weakening and the effectiveness of its military support is being questioned. In an environment where Russian weapons are scarce due to the war with Ukraine, the Malian junta is turning to China for arms. China's strategic efforts in the Sahel resemble its efforts in the rest of the African continent: securing infrastructure contracts under the Belt and Road Initiative and gaining access to mineral resources. But the rebel attacks in the Sahel are bad for Chinese business. In Şubat, the Chinese embassy in Nijer's capital, Niamey, warned Chinese companies to pull their employees out of the line of fire, as rebels were targeting Chinese infrastructure projects, including a $4.5 billion oil pipeline extending from Nijer to Benin.

In 2024, the United States was forced to leave neighboring Nijer following a coup and withdraw from a $100 million base. Apparently, the US was losing ground in the Sahel to both Russia and China. However, early this year, as security concerns in the Sahel increased sharply, the US changed its approach and chose to pragmatically engage with the military juntas. As of the end of Şubat, the US began direct talks with the junta in Mali, seeking political concessions in exchange for counter-terrorism support. This is part of the US effort to maintain its influence in the region. However, the situation in Mali exposes the limits of Russia's military support and the fragility of China's growing economic engagement. The rebel alliance aims to weaken the junta by besieging Bamako. If the junta falls, it will be a massive blow to Moscow and will reshape the balance of power in the Sahel. For this reason, the rebellion in Mali is of critical importance to Moscow, not just as a local issue, but as part of a global power struggle.