Third Consecutive Price Hike for Diesel on the Way: Prices Approaching the 70 TL Limit

The fuel market in Türkiye is bracing for a new wave of price increases due to fluctuations in global energy prices and geopolitical tensions. According to information obtained from industry sources, the reflection of an upcoming hike in diesel liter prices on pump prices has become certain. This increase, planned to take effect from midnight connecting Friday, 10 July, to Saturday, 11 July, is expected to be between 2 and 3 TL per liter. If expectations are met, this will mark the third consecutive hike on diesel in a short period. Consequently, drivers and the transportation sector will face a new rise in costs.

With the reflection of this latest increase at the pump, diesel prices are estimated to reach or exceed the psychological threshold of 70 TL in many major cities across Türkiye. Price changes in metropolises with heavy vehicle traffic, such as İstanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, will directly affect both individual consumers and commercial fleet operators. The risk that logistics expenses of intercity transportation companies will trend upwards again entails passing these costs on to the end consumer, thereby fueling general inflationary pressures. With the new prices coming into effect, signs at fuel stations and current price lists will need to be updated.

At the root of this upward trend in fuel prices lie concerns over supply security in global markets and international political tensions. The upward trend in Brent crude oil prices has become more pronounced, especially with the increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Following the statements by US President Donald Trump regarding a potential ceasefire process with Iran, uncertainties regarding the security of the oil supply line have resurfaced in the markets. Furthermore, existing security risks around the Strait of Hormuz keep the possibility of a disruption in global oil trade on the agenda. These international tension factors constitute the most significant external dynamics directly affecting fuel costs in countries including Türkiye.

Another crucial factor straining the oil and fuel supply chain is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine's ongoing attacks on refinery facilities located within Russian borders threaten global fuel processing capacity. Operations targeting such military and strategic targets negatively impact costs and supply continuity during the stage where crude oil is refined into fuel. The aforementioned global supply constraints and cost increases are directly reflected in diesel production, paving the way for higher fuel prices in import-dependent countries like Türkiye. The convergence of all these international developments causes fluctuations in the fuel market to accelerate.

Considering the previous hikes implemented last week, the fact that the total increase in diesel prices will shortly exceed the 5 TL mark is being closely monitored in the markets. When this new price hike package arrives, the liter price of diesel is projected to reach 71 TL in Ankara and 71,27 TL in İzmir. In the European Side of İstanbul, the price is expected to rise to approximately 69,88 TL, and to 69,73 TL on the Anatolian Side. Currently, while gasoline is sold at 62,87 TL on the European Side of İstanbul and at 62,68 TL on the Anatolian Side, LPG prices are trading at an average band of 31 TL on both sides. Following the recent price hikes, when price stability will be achieved in the fuel sector remains uncertain, depending on developments in global markets.