Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy facilities put Putin in a difficult position

Ukraine's increasingly severe attacks on Russia's oil industry are forcing one of the world's largest energy producers to take blow after blow. In this context, Russia is facing a major crisis, having to restrict diesel exports, turn to fuel imports, and face fuel shortages extending from occupied Kırım to cities in the country's interior. These domestic consequences are considered the most concrete indicators that the Russian people are beginning to experience the devastating effects of the war firsthand. Former Russian opposition politician and commentator Maxim Katz emphasized that these shortages are one of the first situations where ordinary citizens directly feel the consequences of the war. According to Katz, this situation has become an extremely sensitive political issue for the Kremlin ahead of the Devlet Duması elections planned for September.

In an interview with Fox News Dijital, Katz stated that Russians are seeing the impact of the war on their daily lives more clearly than ever before, not only through fuel prices but also through difficulties in accessing fuel. Noting that the complete depletion and inability to purchase fuel poses an extremely major problem for Russia, Katz said this crisis has tarnished President Vladimir Putin's image that everything is under his control. Stating that Putin's strategy of keeping the cost of the war away from ordinary Russians has collapsed, Katz emphasized that the war has now reached their doorstep, changing all political equations. The fact that a country like Russia, historically one of the world's largest exporters of oil and refined products, is seeking fuel from abroad reveals the magnitude of the strategic setback being experienced.

The scale of the decline in Russia's fuel production is also confirmed by reports from international news agencies. It was reported that Moscow contacted Kazakhstan regarding the import of 50,000 metric tons of gasoline after production decreased by about 25 percent compared to the same period last year due to refinery malfunctions. During this period, Ukraine's drone attacks reached a new turning point, successfully striking the Omsk facility, Russia's largest refinery thousands of kilometers away. While production was temporarily halted following the attack on this facility, an attack on another important facility closed the Saratov refinery for the third time this year.

This deepening crisis brings with it a critical strategic questioning for Ukraine and its allies. It is a matter of curiosity whether the attacks can change Putin's calculations by striking the infrastructure that is the backbone of the Russian military and economy. Retired US Air Force General and Former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO Philip M. Breedlove confirmed that Ukraine's campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is creating a real and growing impact within the Russian homeland. Breedlove stated that, according to some estimates, the decline in fuel production is nearly one-third, expressing that this situation has seriously shaken the economy and the Kremlin's capacity to sustain the war. According to Breedlove, Russia cannot defend every refinery and energy facility across its vast territories with the same effectiveness, creating an unsolvable security problem for Moscow.

While Russia's defensive weakness turns into a strategic advantage for Ukraine, the reaction of the Russian people is becoming a new source of fear for the Kremlin administration. Maxim Katz predicts that Putin will do everything to feed his army and tanks with fuel, so there will be no immediate issue in military supply. However, Katz states that the real problem is the risk of Putin losing his political and social control over Russia, rather than military capacity. The outbreak of fights at gas stations in Russia and Putin being forced to admit the shortages are interpreted as heralds of a new process threatening internal peace. It is analyzed that these developments weaken the hand of the Kremlin, which tries to shift the burden of the war onto ordinary citizens, and that Moscow faces pressure to make radical changes in its war policies.