ABD-İran Tension Shakes Oil and Gold Prices

The crumbling of the peace agreement reached between the United States and İran has led to a rapid and sharp pricing in global energy markets. Brent oil, which had previously fallen to 70,15 dollars with the opening of the Hürmüz Boğazı and news of the agreement, hitting its lowest levels in the last four months, changed direction following new conflicts in the region. The price per barrel of oil, which traded at 72 dollars on Monday, quickly climbed to 75,93 dollars with a strong increase of 5,46 percent. Prices also tested the 76,60 dollar level during the day, reaching a peak for the last two weeks. This sharp rise once again highlighted how decisive geopolitical risks in the Middle East are on global commodity supply.

Tension in the Hürmüz Boğazı, which is of vital importance for oil supply, continues to escalate despite ceasefire calls. The İran Devrim Muhafızları' striking two commercial ships passing through the strait suddenly brought the tension in the region to a peak, and a retaliatory move from the ABD was not delayed. The ABD army organized military operations targeting Sirik, Keşm Adası and Bender Abbas, expanding the scope of the crisis. In parallel with these military steps, the Washington administration canceled the license that temporarily allowed the sale of İran oil. The license in question is known to have been published on 21 Haziran and to be valid for a 60-day period, but the evolving conflicts caused this regulation to be shelved as well.

Brent oil testing the 76 dollar band again affects not only energy markets but also global inflation expectations and interest rate policies directly. This sudden rise in energy costs indicates that inflationary pressures are increasing again and that central banks are obliged to continue their high interest rate policies for a longer period of time. These macroeconomic concerns created selling pressure in the gold market, known as a safe haven. Investors are updating their positions, fearing that increasing interest costs will put pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, which reduces returns.

In global gold markets, these developments manifested themselves as a significant loss of value in ounce gold prices. Ounce gold, which experienced a 1,42 percent decline in yesterday's transactions, closed at the 4.106 dollar level. In today's transactions, ounce gold maintained its volatile course, pricing at 4.125 dollars as of TSİ 06:20. On the other hand, the 8 Temmuz 2026 delivery gram gold price traded on the spot market started the day at the 6.215 TL level. These price movements reveal the complex impacts of geopolitical developments on both exchange rates and commodity prices.

Overall, the shift of the ABD-İran tension to a military dimension seriously reduces the risk appetite in global markets. Every new conflict in the Hürmüz Boğazı, the heart of international oil shipments, fuels fears of supply chain disruptions, making energy costs volatile. The inflationary effect created by the rise in oil prices also causes changes in direction in other precious metals, especially gold. The future course of the markets seems tightly dependent on the shape of military moves and diplomatic steps in the Middle East. Investors continue to closely monitor both supply security concerns in energy markets and possible interest rate reactions from central banks.