Peru Unprepared for Natural Disasters: Infrastructure Crisis Under the Threat of El Niño and Earthquakes

Peru is experiencing serious concern due to a severe coastal El Niño event (FEN) and the threat of a major earthquake occurring in Venezuela, which is feared to be repeated in its own country. These potential disasters will ruthlessly test the limited capacity of a state that tends to react to events rather than mitigate their impacts. Widespread infrastructure deficits across the country, a high rate of informal and structurally inadequate housing, and severe managerial constraints in preventing disaster risks further exacerbate this threat. When these shortcomings combine, they lead to the creation of a highly fragile environment that directly threatens the lives and safety of millions of people in the country. Therefore, it has become a critical necessity for authorities to urgently adopt a much more proactive approach in identifying risks in advance and taking necessary measures, rather than merely intervening during crises.

Since the beginning of the century, Peru has faced numerous devastating natural disasters that have deeply shaken the national economy and wiped out a significant portion of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In particular, the damage caused by the 2017 coastal El Niño event brought a massive financial burden equivalent to 1,5% of the country's economy, while the 2001 and 2007 earthquakes each destroyed approximately 0,6% of the GDP. Between 2015 and 2024, the National Institute of Civil Defense (Indeci) recorded more than 57 thousand natural emergencies, affecting 9,5 million people, 1,2 million homes, 6 thousand bridges, and 32 thousand kilometers of highways. A large majority of these emergencies consisted of heavy rains, standing out as the primary culprit for the damage. While severe rains were held responsible for 63% of the damaged homes, 74% of the bridges, and 75% of the roads during this period, the El Niño event expected in the near future has the potential to further increase these risks up to 2027.

The devastating effects of natural disasters are turning into an even greater tragedy due to the extremely unfavorable and unsafe housing stock across the country. Approximately 77% of the homes in Peru are informal settlements built without any property deeds or basic structural guarantees. According to 2025 data, 72,4% of these informal homes have inadequate foundations, 50% have unsuitable roofs, and 29% have walls made of non-durable materials. These structural deprivations vary by region; for example, in jungle regions such as Loreto, Ucayali, and San Martín, more than 90% of informal homes have rotting or inadequate roofs. This means that the risk of loss of life and homelessness in these regions will multiply exponentially during any natural disaster.

The decay in public infrastructure similarly paints a worrying picture, further weakening the country's resilience against disasters. Approximately 27 thousand educational buildings need to be demolished and rebuilt from scratch, directly jeopardizing the education of over 1,2 million students. At current construction and renovation rates, closing this massive educational infrastructure gap is estimated to take 24 years nationwide, and over 50 years in some regions like San Martín, Amazonas, and Loreto. In addition, the 2026 budget allocation per capita for the country's northern regions, where risks are highest, being 30% lower in real terms compared to the last decade's average creates a major contradiction. Conversely, allocating higher budgets per capita to the eastern, central, and southern regions leaves the north unprotected against a potential El Niño disaster.

These shortcomings in disaster prevention infrastructure become even more inextricable due to the low budget execution performance of the institutions tasked with managing disasters. The National Infrastructure Authority (ANIN), which was tasked with preventing disasters and rebuilding damaged infrastructure, achieving an execution of only 36% of the total budget allocated for current projects, despite having special procurement mechanisms, is a significant failure. Even though 75% of the public works in this institution's portfolio started before 2023, such slow financial progress reveals that resources are not being utilized effectively. In light of all these structural, financial, and administrative constraints, Peru is highly vulnerable to impending natural disasters. The country's ability to overcome these massive crises and ensure the safety of its citizens will depend on strong state governance centered on preventive measures, rather than mere crisis intervention.