Mortgage Rates in the ABD Locked Around 6,5 Percent: New Housing Law Could Be a Hope

Buyers in the ABD housing market waiting for interest rates to drop and prices to erode are bracing for a major disappointment as the spring homebuying season nears its end. Tensions with İran and the inflation concerns triggered by this situation have caused mortgage rates to remain stubbornly high. Additionally, new fears that the ABD central bank (Fed) might raise interest rates again to bring price pressures under control have further increased uncertainty in the markets. Current average 30-year fixed mortgage rates stand at 6,49 percent, continuing to hover near the highest numbers of the year. Despite this negative economic picture, a new bipartisan housing law aimed at increasing housing supply and easing this affordability pressure over the next few years is about to be enacted with the support of republicans and democrats.

Mortgage rates primarily closely follow the 10-year yield of the ABD Treasury bond, and this yield is directly linked to inflation expectations. The yield maintains its high levels because investors fear that rising oil prices and conflicts in the Middle East could lead to persistent inflation and ultimately a rate hike by the Fed. The temporary agreement reached between the ABD and İran had seemingly calmed fears in the bond market for a while. However, the resurgence of tensions this week following the ABD's launch of extra attacks against İran pushed both oil prices and the 10-year yield upward once again.

Economic analysis firm Zillow forecasts that despite these recent economic fluctuations, mortgage rates will gradually decrease and fall to around 6,3 percent by the end of 2026. Nevertheless, it is noted that even this expected drop will indicate a higher level than the interest rates at the end of 2025. Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng emphasizes that if rates finish 2026 around 6,3 percent, this will shift from being an advantage for buyers compared to the same periods last year to becoming a headwind. The stubborn continuation of rates above 6 percent is currently keeping many potential homebuyers out of the market and preventing them from entering.

This trajectory in interest rates directly reflects in home sales figures; according to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell by 2,4 percent in June compared to May. This pullback during the spring season, normally expected to be the busiest time of the year, is considered a clear indicator of the market's stagnation. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, underscoring how minor fluctuations in interest rates affect sales activity and how sensitive buyers are to affordability conditions, notes that a very cautious trend is being observed in the market. Despite this, parallel to the unexpected drop in sales, the median sale price of existing homes continues its upward trend, reaching a record level of 440.600 dollars for June, proving how stubborn prices are.

On the other hand, interest rates are not the only factor determining the affordability problem in the housing market; the long-standing housing supply shortage, which causes buyers to compete for fewer homes, also plays a major role in driving up prices. To find a solution to this problem, the ABD Congress approved last month a bill named the "Road to the 21st Century Housing Act" aiming to add more housing supply to the market. The law includes various measures such as facilitating the market integration of prefabricated homes produced in factories and providing grants and conditional loans for the repair of existing homes in poor condition. Even though President Donald Trump suddenly backed down from signing the bill and described it on social media as a 'waste of time,' if he does not veto the bill by Friday night, the law will automatically go into effect, and according to experts, it could positively impact housing prices over time.