As ABD-İran Tensions Rise Again, Brezilya May Be Forced to Extend Fuel Subsidies

The renewed escalation of military and political tensions between Amerika Birleşik Devletleri and İran stands out as a significant development directly affecting global energy markets. In this climate of conflict, brent oil prices quickly abandoned their tendency to retreat to pre-war levels. While barrel prices were hovering around 60 dollars recently, they surged to around 80 dollars following new military maneuvers in Orta Doğu, entering a new peak-testing phase. This sharp price increase has the potential to disrupt the economic balances of countries dependent on energy imports, in particular. This global fluctuation is also deeply impacting the domestic market fuel policies of Brezilya, one of the major economies in the southern hemisphere.

The Brezilya government is being forced to postpone its plan to eliminate state subsidies on essential fuels such as gasoline and diesel due to this unpredictable rise in global oil prices. Last week, the country's finance minister announced that the gasoline subsidy of 0,44 Brezilya Reali per liter would be ended as of this week and the market would be left to its own dynamics. Additionally, the complete abolition of the diesel support, which had been partially reduced previously, was on the agenda. However, the new jump in international commodity prices pushed the government to reconsider these decisions and slow down the process. Officials even raise the possibility that if a high trajectory like the one in Nisan is experienced again in raw materials, new subsidy regulations could be introduced for diesel.

The Brezilya state oil company Petrobras stands out as the largest and most critical stakeholder of this government subsidy program. It is known that 4,7 milyar Real in resources have been transferred to the company to date in order to prevent excessive price fluctuations in international stock markets from being reflected on the Brezilya public. Although the government has withdrawn a portion of 0,35 Real per liter from the diesel subsidy so far, a state support of 1,12 Real is currently still being maintained. The expectation of a discount in gasoline prices has also been suspended pending the clarification of the international conjecture. Investors and market analysts state that Petrobras's new pricing policy is entirely dependent on the course of the war in Orta Doğu.

At the forefront of the global price increases are the statements made by ABD Başkanı Donald Trump regarding İran. Trump stated that they have already admitted that new and comprehensive sanctions and military operations against İran will inevitably affect oil prices upwards. Speaking at a joint press conference held in Ankara with the Suriye devlet başkanı, Trump argued that oil prices increase with every ABD attack, but that this is an acceptable situation. Emphasizing that they are determined to stop İrani nuclear activities and that if needed, new attacks could continue throughout the night, the ABD Başkanı stated that the possibility of a ground operation is currently seen as unlikely. Furthermore, demands were made by Ulusal Hazine Bakanı Scott Bessent that, in an environment of global crisis, ABD oil should trade with a risk premium and a premium structure.

The uncompromising stance of the parties holds a massive crisis capacity for regional and global trade. According to the latest information reported by the İran state media, the Tahran administration warned that in the event of any new American attack, it would double its retaliation capacity and deliver a ruthless response. More importantly, the threat of completely closing the Hürmüz Boğazı, a highly critical waterway that forms the backbone of global oil trade, was put on the table. İran sources clearly stated that in the event of the slightest military action in the region, they would cut this strategic sea route and halt the flow of world oil. It was reported that if such a scenario occurs, the reopening of the strait would only depend on the fulfillment of new political and diplomatic conditions to be defined within the framework of the İslamabad mutabakat memorandum.