Attention Drawn to Drought Risk in Arequipa Province Due to El Nino Effect

Located in the south of Peru, the Arequipa province is facing a serious water deficit threat in the upcoming summer season. Senamhi, the country's official meteorological authority, points to the effects of the El Nino event as the main cause of this situation. Authorities state that temperature increases are accelerating the evaporation of water stored in the region's dams, directly threatening the drinking water supply. Statements regarding the issue bring along concerns that access to water for agricultural irrigation and human consumption could become increasingly difficult. If necessary precautions are not taken, the local population and the agricultural sector may face unpredictable adversities.

Henry Gómez Delgado, an agricultural expert at Senamhi's Regional Directorate 6, stated that the current Niño Costero (Coastal El Nino) event has already begun to alter climatic conditions in Arequipa. Gómez announced that during this year's winter season, temperatures have been hovering one to two degrees above normal values. Additionally, it was noted that temperature anomalies on the country's northern coasts have reached up to six degrees, indicating a large-scale meteorological deviation. The expert emphasized that these extraordinary temperature increases are gradually depleting water reserves in vital dams such as Aguada Blanca, El Fraile, and Bamputañe. This rapid evaporation transforms the existing drought risk into a more exacerbating structure, bringing water levels closer to the critical threshold.

Authorities predict that the effects of the Coastal El Nino will reach their highest levels in July, November, and December. Meanwhile, the Global El Nino event, which is expected to be effective this year, is projected to manifest itself more distinctly between December and March. Gómez expressed that the expected rainfall in the region could begin unusually early, starting in November. However, he warned that these early rains would not provide sufficient water replenishment to bring water levels in riverbeds and dams to a safe point. Therefore, it is emphasized that even with the presence of rainfall, the conservation of existing water reserves in the long term remains a critical issue.

Experts predict that the expected rainfall will concentrate more in the middle parts of the basins rather than the higher elevations of the region. This situation could lead to the movement of severe floodwaters (floods) and consequently serious flood risks in city centers, rather than the water reaching and being stored in the dams. Conversely, the lack of sufficient rainfall in the high mountainous areas that feed water sources will leave the hydrological support needed to fill the dams inadequate. This irregular distribution of rainfall both threatens urban areas with flooding and disrupts the regular water flow required for agricultural activities. Consequently, the risk of devastation from floods and the issue of water scarcity are considered two major consecutive threats to the local population.

In light of all these meteorological data, it is concluded that the Arequipa administration and the local population must prepare emergency action plans for water management. Considering the magnitude of the drought threat, developing alternative water sources is of great importance alongside measures to ensure water conservation. Senamhi officials argue that ongoing efforts must be accelerated to minimize the devastating effects of these unpredictable changes in climate conditions on agriculture, livestock, and human water consumption. Closely monitoring developments and informing farmers to adapt to seasonal changes are among the significant steps that can be taken to mitigate damages. Depending on the course of meteorological events in the coming months, re-evaluating regional water security policies has become mandatory.