On the Brink of Disaster: Why is Sea Level Rise a Major Threat for Filipinler?

Global climate change has ceased to be a problem of the future and has transformed into a current crisis we are directly experiencing. According to statements made by the Amerikan Ulusal Havacılık ve Uzay Dairesi (NASA), scientists are highly confident that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades due to greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human activities. The sixth assessment report prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) clearly demonstrates that the climate has already warmed by approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to the period between 1850-1900. If current trends continue, the global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed the threshold level of 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next few decades. Scientists warn all of humanity that if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, our planet will face irreversible catastrophes.

One of the most devastating and threatening consequences of climate change on our planet is, without a doubt, the rapid rise in sea levels. United Nations officials state that factors such as the warming of ocean waters and the melting of glaciers at the poles are the primary causes of this sea level rise. It is predicted that sea levels will rise noticeably even if the targets of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 and aiming to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era, are fully achieved. Respectable scientists confirm that sea levels rose continuously throughout the 20th century and that this dangerous upward trend has accelerated significantly in the last few decades. According to this data, if urgent and radical climate actions are not taken, much more dramatic increases in ocean levels by the end of the century will be inevitable.

Current projections prepared by the Amerikan Ulusal Okyanus ve Atmosfer Dairesi (NOAA) predict that sea levels will rise by nearly 1 feet (approximately 30 centimeters) by 2050 compared to 2000 levels. The same research data indicates that by 2100, this rise could exceed 3 feet (approximately 90 centimeters). Officials emphasize that this scenario is only a 'mid-level' estimate and that the situation will become much more severe if comprehensive measures against climate change are not taken. According to scientists' worst-case scenario, global sea levels could rise by an average of 6.6 feet (approximately 2 meters) by the end of the century. Such a massive rise points to an environmental disaster that will devastate coastal cities and coastal regions across the world.

This global threat has literally become a matter of life and death for Filipinler, which consists of 7.641 islands and is in an extremely vulnerable position due to its geographical structure. According to data from the Ulusal Haritalama ve Kaynak Bilgi Otoritesi, the country is one of the regions that will be most affected by sea level rise due to its shallow coastal strips. The rate of sea level rise in Filipinler was measured at an annual average of 6.2 millimeters between 1993 and 2009, a figure that well exceeds the global average of 3.3 millimeters. Since the proportion of the population living in coastal areas is over 60 percent, the advance of the oceans directly threatens the homes and livelihoods of millions of people. The book 'Climate Emergency in Filipinler' summarizes the country's situation by stating that coastal erosion has reached critical proportions even before sea level rise shows its full effect, due to storms and human-induced interventions.

The Filipinler Çevre ve Doğal Kaynaklar Bakanlığı (DENR) has produced striking statistics demonstrating the severity of the issue. Analiza Rebuelta-Teh, an official from the ministry, stated that if necessary measures are not taken, 64 provinces and 822 coastal communities in the country will be at risk of being submerged by 2100. In this disaster scenario, approximately 13.6 million Filipinler citizens are expected to be permanently displaced and forced to relocate to safer, higher-altitude areas. It is projected that even by 2040, approximately 150.000 people will have to abandon their homes due to sea level rise. On a global scale, it is expected that by 2050, areas where 300 million people live, and by 2100, areas where 200 million people live, will fall below the high tide line and these regions will be completely submerged.