Chasing the Central and Eastern European Dream

Central and Eastern Europe (ODA) has been the subject of European history for centuries, with decisions made elsewhere. However, this region is now becoming Europe's engine. This transformation requires a consistent agenda, not an emotional approach. The region is driven by a desire to prove itself, and this yields concrete results. ODA has become one of Europe's most dynamic growth regions, NATO's frontline, and an incubator for globally competitive firms. However, the rest of Europe is perceiving this change slowly and unevenly.

Security is the foundation of the ODA project. The region has never seen security as a secondary issue. ODA countries that pushed for NATO expansion in the 1990s were accused of being alarmist. When they warned about gas dependency on Russia, they were labeled provincial. When they advocated forward deterrence after 2014, they were accused of being provocative. But the 2022 invasion of Ukraine ended this debate definitively. What was dismissed as the concerns of small states was a correct reading of the strategic environment. Poland, allocating 4.5% of its GDP to defense, reached the highest rate in NATO. Romania is transforming the Mihail Kogălniceanu base into NATO's largest base in Europe. The Baltic countries rebuilt their defense structures on the assumption that deterrence must be credible before it is tested.

Whether defense investment translates into industrial capacity is a critical question. Poland is trying to implement a more productive model by using its purchasing power for technology transfer, reviving aviation and production programs from the communist era, and developing drone, cyber, and maintenance ecosystems that can serve NATO requirements and export markets. If defense spending remains as consumption, it is a sunk cost; as an industrial policy, it is a strategic investment.

The economic story is not a convergence story in the traditional sense. According to the 2025 EY survey, while 41% of firms in 16 ODA countries increased their revenues by 6-20%, 18% recorded growth above 20%. This occurred during a period when Western Europe was struggling with stagnation. Five ODA countries rank in the global top 30 in the StartupBlink Business Environment Index. What is emerging is a community of medium-sized, specialized, export-oriented companies that possess the structural DNA of Germany's Mittelstand, but with characteristics not required by the German original. These firms are oriented towards exports due to the small size of national markets, reinvest their profits due to shallow capital markets, and have the capacity to absorb shocks thanks to their crisis metabolism.

Infrastructure is the basis of ODA's claim to be Europe-centric. The region is making major investments in energy, transport, and digital connectivity. Poland is increasing its energy independence by investing in offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea and nuclear energy. Romania is increasing natural gas production in the Black Sea. Railway and road networks are being modernized to strengthen connections with Western Europe. In digital infrastructure, Estonia continues to pioneer e-government and cybersecurity. These investments aim to make ODA the logistics and energy hub of Europe. However, for this transformation to be successful, regional cooperation and the effective use of EU funds are of critical importance. The rise of ODA will shape Europe's future, and the region's unique dynamics will be decisive in this process.