UN warns El Niño will intensify until September, triggering adverse weather conditions

The United Nations (UN) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a new warning regarding the significant intensification of the El Niño event, which deeply affects the global climate order, in the coming months. In a statement made on Friday, July 3, 2026, it was stated that this climate event would gradually strengthen throughout the summer and increase serious risks such as droughts, heavy rainfall, and extreme heat waves in many regions worldwide. The Organization announced that it has increased coordination with governments and vulnerable sectors and activated early warning systems to minimize the damage caused by these potential effects. This development points to a new and more active phase of a process, which is a natural cycle of atmospheric and oceanic conditions but can reach dimensions threatening human life and economies.

El Niño, officially known as 'El Niño-Southern Oscillation' (ENSO), is scientifically defined as a natural climate event characterized by the abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the World Meteorological Organization's data, this phenomenon usually recurs once every two to seven years, and a single cycle lasts between 9 to 12 months. However, it is predicted that the current cycle is developing at a speed beyond expectations and will become much more intense in the period from July to September. Climate models indicate that anomalies in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific could reach two degrees. This situation leads to an increase in global average temperatures and causes weather conditions to follow an unpredictable course.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated in her assessment that El Niño conditions have already begun and will rapidly strengthen to reach a 'strong event' level. Saulo emphasized that this intensification will cause serious deviations in both temperature and precipitation regimes on land and sea, resulting in increased risks of drought and floods in many countries. It was noted that sectors with high climate sensitivity, such as agriculture and health, would be directly affected by these fluctuations, and the organization has taken action to strengthen preparations against these risks through international cooperation. Saulo underlined that seasonal forecasts and early warning systems are vital for saving lives as well as for reducing socio-economic impacts.

The reports published by the Organization predict that there will be serious imbalances in precipitation distribution worldwide in the coming months. While above-normal rainfall is expected in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific and regions near the Gulf of Guinea in Africa, this situation could pave the way for flash floods. In contrast, less rainfall than normal is predicted, posing a drought risk in the tropical regions of the Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, Australia, parts of Central America, the Caribbean, the northwest of South America, and the Horn of Africa. These contrasts in Africa and America present a scenario that will challenge managers regarding agricultural production and water security.

The report also includes predictions on how the European continent will be affected by the expected climate changes. Current climate models indicate a tendency for increased precipitation in southern regions and decreased precipitation in northern regions across the continent. However, the World Meteorological Organization stated that the reliability level of forecasts for Europe is lower compared to other regions, therefore uncertainties persist and the data should be interpreted carefully. This El Niño wave, which will be felt globally, is forcing countries to prepare emergency action plans and increase climate resilience.