24-Hour Ultimatum from the US to Iran: Stop the Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz

The US administration has increased pressure on Iran to an extremely severe level by presenting a definitive 24-hour ultimatum valid until Saturday. This ultimatum demands that Iran publicly commit to stopping its attacks on commercial ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz. According to a report by the Axios news website, based on three different American officials, Washington conveyed this message directly and through regional intermediaries to Tehran. US officials emphasized that Iran has violated the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed three weeks ago by repeatedly opening fire on commercial ships, bringing the fragile agreement to the brink of collapse. These developments reveal how fragile the diplomatic relations between the two countries are and that regional tensions could escalate at any moment.

President Donald Trump, in a statement made this week, announced that the previously established ceasefire has officially ended. In retaliation for Iran's attacks on ships, the US decided to carry out two separate military strikes so far and successfully executed these operations. On the other hand, while Friday passed relatively calm, Trump leaving the door open to diplomacy gave rise to a slight hope that the conflict has not been brought to a completely inescapable point. However, the Washington administration harbors serious and deep doubts about whether Iran can be a reliable partner in this process. American officials argue that if Tehran cannot adhere to such a fundamental maritime agreement, it will be neither willing nor able to comply with a much more complex nuclear accord.

All eyes are now turned to a critical diplomatic meeting expected to take place on Saturday in Muskat, the capital of Oman. At this meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi will meet with his Omani counterpart Seyyid Bedr el-Buseydi. In recent weeks, Oman's alignment with the US and Gulf countries to open a new southern corridor for ship transit off its own coasts deeply angered Iran. Because this alternative route significantly weakened Iran's restricting power and strategic monopoly, it cornered the Tehran administration in negotiations. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ismail Bagai stated that Arakchi's visit will focus on key issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and the security of maritime transportation.

White House officials claim that following the two days of intense clashes this week, the Iranians contacted Washington and expressed their desire to continue negotiations to resolve the dispute. An American official suggested that Iranian negotiators said, 'We messed up, we made a mistake, let's keep talking,' implying that Tehran has taken a step back. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry firmly denied these claims, arguing that Tehran did not request direct talks with the US but merely responded positively to the relevant plea from Qatari intermediaries. On the other hand, US intelligence reports that a fierce power struggle is taking place within the Iranian regime between radical elements trying to seize control of the regime and a moderate faction regarding the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding. American sources estimate that the order to open fire on ships was most likely given by radical groups trying to regain their lost influence.

Washington has clearly laid out the expectations that need to be heard from Tehran, warning that a negative response will carry very heavy consequences. An American official stated that they expect Iran to publicly announce that it will stop firing on ships and at least indirectly admit their mistake, emphasizing that all maritime corridors must remain open without transit fees. A second American official indicated that a possible rejection from Iran would 'not be a great day' for Tehran, pointing to military and economic retaliations. Nevertheless, despite this deep crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the US continues to provide assurances that progress has been made toward a comprehensive nuclear agreement in the negotiations over the last three weeks. However, the current crisis has created massive question marks in the minds of all world states, particularly the US, regarding whether Iran can truly remain loyal to any international agreement.