Oil prices rose amid concerns over a fragile ceasefire following ABD's attacks on İran

The air strikes conducted by the ABD military against İran and the renewed sanctions imposed by this country on crude oil sales have created a deep wave of concern in global energy markets. These military and economic moves have brought up the possibility of the collapse of the highly fragile ceasefire agreement between the two countries. The fear that energy supply in the Orta Doğu could be severely disrupted in the event of a ceasefire violation unnerved investors, causing a sharp rise in oil prices. Global benchmarks such as Brent crude and ABD's WTI crude oil gained more than 2.6 percent on Wednesday morning. This clearly shows that prices, which had retreated to pre-war levels, are once again under upward pressure.

According to market data, Brent crude oil futures rose to 76.08 dollars per barrel around 07.00 Saudi Arabia time, recording an increase of 1.92 dollars. In parallel, ABD's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) quality crude oil also reached 72.26 dollars per barrel with a jump of 1.82 dollars. Both benchmarks had gained nearly 3 percent the day before, on Tuesday, following ABD's cancellation of the general license allowing the sale of İran crude oil after the attacks carried out by İran. ING commodity strategists emphasize that while the license cancellation does not immediately change underlying market dynamics, it is extremely critical in terms of sentiment. Experts note that this move clearly increases the risk of the temporary agreement collapsing and leads traders to reconsider their positions against future supply disruptions.

According to a statement from the ABD Central Command, the ABD airstrikes were a direct retaliation for attacks carried out by İran on three commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hürmüz. Saul Kavonic, head of research at MST Marquee, stated that the current fire reminded the market of how vulnerable transit through the Strait of Hürmüz is. Unlike the pre-war period, it is reported that ship traffic levels in the strait are currently quite low, and these rates could be pulled down even further if tensions continue. Kavonic added that this situation served as an indicator contrary to the current market sentiment leaning towards excess supply, and could even trigger the closure of record short positions. It is predicted that if the traffic flow in the strait continues to remain below 50 percent of pre-war levels, the resulting supply constraints could push oil prices even higher.

Following the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the ABD and İran last month, oil prices quickly fell back to pre-war levels, and traders began taking large amounts of short positions. The prevailing expectation was that accumulated Orta Doğu supply would be transferred to global markets, suppressing prices. However, although İran denied responsibility for the attacks on the ships, Katar explicitly blamed İran as the perpetrator of these attacks. Among these attacks is an incident where a Katar natural gas tanker was hit by a UAV, causing a fire in the engine room. Furthermore, according to maritime security sources, it was learned that a Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker, believed to be the super tanker named 'Wedyan', was also attacked off the coast of Umman. Such events stand out as elements that directly threaten the security of energy logistics.

All these developments have revived concerns, as precious as gold, regarding tanker traffic in the Strait of Hürmüz, through which about one-fifth of the world's energy supply is transported. To assert its control over the strait, İran is pressuring ships to use a route closer to its own coast rather than the one near the Umman coast. In response, the ABD insists that the waterway must remain open to everyone as it was before the war started, emphasizing that this freedom must be protected. Since the war began in Şubat, countries have had to severely deplete their strategic petroleum reserves and stocks to close the supply gap. Recent data announced in the ABD also showed that crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, further strengthening concerns of a tightening market and price pressure.