Putin Under Pressure From All Sides: Urgently Seeking Allies

After a war lasting more than four years, Russia's military superiority in Ukraine is showing clear signs of weakening. Russia has always tended to lose more soldiers than Ukraine; however, its manpower reserves, which previously seemed inexhaustible, are now rapidly drying up. On the other hand, Ukraine's unmanned aerial vehicles are launching deep strike attacks, reaching as far as Kırım, as well as Moskova and Sankt Petersburg, Russia's most culturally and strategically important cities. These drone attacks in Kırım, a holiday destination favored by wealthy Russians, are causing great anxiety and panic among the Russian public. All these negative developments stand out as the main factors forcing Vladimir Putin to urgently demand support from allied countries and to intensify diplomatic channels.

One of the most concrete indicators of this picture of desperation was Putin inviting Belarus Cumhurbaşkanı Alexander Lukaşenko to Rusya for talks on Cuma. Experts analyzing the situation interpret this invitation as a sign of Putin's unprecedented nervousness and anxiety. Under normal circumstances, Putin should have expected unquestioning loyalty from a country like Belarus without needing mutually beneficial diplomacy. However, the turning of the war's tide against him is increasingly elevating the Kremlin's strategic dependence on Belarus. After all, the use of Belarus's Ukraine border to launch the comprehensive invasion in 2022 Şubat highlights this country's military importance in the region. Experts predict that Putin will continue to hold similar bilateral meetings much more frequently in the current fragile political climate.

Another significant development triggering Putin's rush in seeking allies was the resignation announcement made by Sırbistan Cumhurbaşkanı Aleksandar Vučić on Pazar. Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at the Kraliyet Birleşik Hizmetler Enstitüsü'nden (RUSI), emphasizes that the loss of this long-term ally is an extremely critical and unprecedented situation for Moskova. Furthermore, Macaristan electing a pro-European government earlier this year was experienced as a similar political blow and a major loss for Putin. The gaining momentum of regional countries towards the European Union puts the pressured Russian leader in a seriously difficult position. Such geographical and political regressions are causing Putin to double his efforts to retain his existing allies.

The devastating effects of the war on Rusya have now reached such a point that Putin, in his latest statement on state television, was forced to officially admit that Ukraine's attacks have caused fuel shortages in the country. Experts interpret Putin's confession as the clearest proof that Rusya is on the verge of an inescapable crisis. Nevertheless, Putin continues to reassure the public and the world that he can resolve these chronic problems with his own forces in a short time. However, the gravity of the situation is so obvious that it has become virtually impossible for the Kremlin to hide the truth even from its own people and to act as if nothing has happened. These major disruptions in the fuel supply chains reveal how seriously Rusya's war logistics have been damaged.

Rusya's weak and vulnerable situation is expected to lead other small and arsenal states in Europe to reconsider their relations with Rusya. Leaving aside isolated countries that are completely disconnected from the global economy and under heavy sanctions, such as Kuzey Kore, it is predicted that most states will tend to move away from this risky and costly alliance. In particular, the Kyiv administration's delivery of an ultimatum to Lukaşenko, as it did to Belarus a few weeks ago, demanding the removal of the radar systems used by the Russians to strike Ukraine, increases the pressure on allies. The ability of Ukraine's drones to penetrate so deep into Rusya creates a serious security fear in neighboring countries like Belarus as well. All these geopolitical imbalances carry the potential to radically change not only the battlefield dimension of the war, but also regional diplomacy and global alliance dynamics.